First Media (Indonesia) Market Value
| KBLV Stock | IDR 100.00 1.00 0.99% |
| Symbol | First |
First Media 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Media's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Media.
| 05/26/2024 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Media on May 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Media Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Media over 180 days. First Media is related to or competes with Gunawan Dianjaya, Chandra Asri, Steel Pipe, Lotte Chemical, Tera Data, Hotel Sahid, and Metrodata Electronics. More
First Media Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Media's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Media Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.3732 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.57 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.04) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.68 |
First Media Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Media's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Media's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Media historical prices to predict the future First Media's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.3105 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.38 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.9517 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.506 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.06) |
First Media Tbk Backtested Returns
First Media is very steady given 3 months investment horizon. First Media Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.44, which denotes the company had a 0.44% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to collect data for thirty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.4% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use First Media Downside Deviation of 2.46, coefficient of variation of 248.87, and Mean Deviation of 2.44 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. First Media holds a performance score of 34 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.65, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Media are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Media is likely to outperform the market. Use First Media treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to analyze future returns on First Media.
Auto-correlation | 0.60 |
Good predictability
First Media Tbk has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Media time series from 26th of May 2024 to 24th of August 2024 and 24th of August 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Media Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current First Media price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.7 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 337.34 |
First Media Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Media stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Media's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Media returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Media has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Media regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Media stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Media stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Media stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Media Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Media's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Media stock have on its future price. First Media autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Media autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Media stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Media Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectOther Information on Investing in First Stock
First Media financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Media security.