KENYA MERCIAL Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| KCB Stock | 830.00 50.00 6.41% |
KENYA |
KENYA MERCIAL Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KENYA MERCIAL BANK on the next trading day is expected to be 833.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.64, mean absolute percentage error of 262.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 686.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KENYA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KENYA MERCIAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
KENYA MERCIAL Stock Forecast Pattern
KENYA MERCIAL Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting KENYA MERCIAL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KENYA MERCIAL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 831.12 and 835.20, respectively. We have considered KENYA MERCIAL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KENYA MERCIAL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KENYA MERCIAL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.6413 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 11.6387 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 686.6808 |
Predictive Modules for KENYA MERCIAL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KENYA MERCIAL BANK. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KENYA MERCIAL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for KENYA MERCIAL
For every potential investor in KENYA, whether a beginner or expert, KENYA MERCIAL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KENYA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KENYA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KENYA MERCIAL's price trends.KENYA MERCIAL Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KENYA MERCIAL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KENYA MERCIAL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KENYA MERCIAL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KENYA MERCIAL BANK Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KENYA MERCIAL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KENYA MERCIAL's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
KENYA MERCIAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KENYA MERCIAL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KENYA MERCIAL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KENYA MERCIAL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KENYA MERCIAL BANK entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
KENYA MERCIAL Risk Indicators
The analysis of KENYA MERCIAL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KENYA MERCIAL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kenya stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.15 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.