Kochav Defense Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| KCHV Stock | 10.20 0.01 0.1% |
Kochav Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Kochav Defense's stock price is slightly above 65. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Kochav, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Kochav Defense hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kochav Defense Acquisition from the perspective of Kochav Defense response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kochav Defense Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.57. Kochav Defense after-hype prediction price | USD 10.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kochav Defense to cross-verify your projections. Kochav Defense Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kochav price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kochav using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kochav charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kochav Defense Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kochav Defense Acquisition on the next trading day is expected to be 10.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kochav Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kochav Defense's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kochav Defense Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kochav Defense | Kochav Defense Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kochav Defense Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kochav Defense's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kochav Defense's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.06 and 10.34, respectively. We have considered Kochav Defense's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kochav Defense stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kochav Defense stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.2328 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0093 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.5696 |
Predictive Modules for Kochav Defense
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kochav Defense Acqui. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kochav Defense After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kochav Defense at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kochav Defense or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kochav Defense, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kochav Defense Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kochav Defense's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kochav Defense's historical news coverage. Kochav Defense's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.06 and 10.34, respectively. We have considered Kochav Defense's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kochav Defense is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kochav Defense Acqui is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kochav Defense Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kochav Defense is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kochav Defense backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kochav Defense, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.20 | 10.20 | 0.00 |
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Kochav Defense Hype Timeline
Kochav Defense Acqui is now traded for 10.20. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Kochav is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Kochav Defense is about 11.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.22. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kochav Defense to cross-verify your projections.Kochav Defense Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kochav Defense's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kochav Defense's future price movements. Getting to know how Kochav Defense's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kochav Defense may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LFBCF | Life Banc Split | 0.12 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 5.43 | |
| FNCSF | North American Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.88 | 0.09 | 3.95 | (3.65) | 25.61 | |
| ABGSF | ABG Sundal Collier | (0.11) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.24 | |
| CNND | Canandaigua National | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.06 | 2.42 | (0.48) | 9.26 | |
| PBAM | Private Bancorp of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.39 | 0.06 | 1.25 | (0.92) | 4.78 | |
| AMIVF | Atrium Mortgage Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.97 | 0.02 | 1.41 | (1.35) | 8.04 | |
| CESTY | Chinese Estates Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| XTPT | Xtra Energy Corp | 11.22 | 5 per month | 6.10 | 0.11 | 12.77 | (10.13) | 44.00 | |
| OITAF | The Oita Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SRXXF | SPARX Group Co | 1.06 | 6 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kochav Defense
For every potential investor in Kochav, whether a beginner or expert, Kochav Defense's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kochav Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kochav. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kochav Defense's price trends.Kochav Defense Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kochav Defense stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kochav Defense could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kochav Defense by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kochav Defense Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kochav Defense stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kochav Defense shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kochav Defense stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kochav Defense Acquisition entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Kochav Defense Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kochav Defense's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kochav Defense's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kochav stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0927 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.136 | |||
| Variance | 0.0185 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0367 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kochav Defense
The number of cover stories for Kochav Defense depends on current market conditions and Kochav Defense's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kochav Defense is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kochav Defense's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Kochav Stock Analysis
When running Kochav Defense's price analysis, check to measure Kochav Defense's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kochav Defense is operating at the current time. Most of Kochav Defense's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kochav Defense's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kochav Defense's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kochav Defense to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.