Keurig Dr Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

KDP Stock  USD 27.76  0.21  0.76%   
Keurig Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Keurig Dr's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Keurig Dr's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Keurig Dr fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Keurig Dr's share price is at 50. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Keurig Dr, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 50

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Keurig Dr's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Keurig Dr Pepper, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Keurig Dr's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.083
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.5904
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.0414
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.1705
Wall Street Target Price
34.4286
Using Keurig Dr hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Keurig Dr Pepper from the perspective of Keurig Dr response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Keurig Dr using Keurig Dr's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Keurig using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Keurig Dr's stock price.

Keurig Dr Short Interest

An investor who is long Keurig Dr may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Keurig Dr and may potentially protect profits, hedge Keurig Dr with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
30.5084
Short Percent
0.034
Short Ratio
2.91
Shares Short Prior Month
40.9 M
50 Day MA
27.9142

Keurig Relative Strength Index

The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Keurig Dr Pepper on the next trading day is expected to be 27.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.70.

Keurig Dr Pepper Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Keurig Dr's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Keurig. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Keurig can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Keurig Dr Pepper. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Keurig Dr's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Keurig Dr.

Keurig Dr Implied Volatility

    
  0.45  
Keurig Dr's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Keurig Dr Pepper stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Keurig Dr's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Keurig Dr stock will not fluctuate a lot when Keurig Dr's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Keurig Dr Pepper on the next trading day is expected to be 27.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.70.

Keurig Dr after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 27.76  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Keurig Dr to cross-verify your projections.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Keurig contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Keurig Dr Pepper will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0281% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Keurig Dr trading at USD 27.76, that is roughly USD 0.007808 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Keurig Dr's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Keurig Dr Pepper options at the current volatility level of 0.45%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Keurig Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Keurig Dr's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Keurig Dr's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Keurig Dr stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Keurig Dr's open interest, investors have to compare it to Keurig Dr's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Keurig Dr is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Keurig. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Keurig Dr Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Keurig price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Keurig using various technical indicators. When you analyze Keurig charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Keurig Dr Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Keurig Dr's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2001-09-30
Previous Quarter
509 M
Current Value
516 M
Quarterly Volatility
275.7 M
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Keurig Dr is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Keurig Dr Pepper value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Keurig Dr Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Keurig Dr Pepper on the next trading day is expected to be 27.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Keurig Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Keurig Dr's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Keurig Dr Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Keurig Dr  Keurig Dr Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Keurig Dr Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Keurig Dr's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Keurig Dr's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.49 and 29.25, respectively. We have considered Keurig Dr's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.76
27.87
Expected Value
29.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Keurig Dr stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Keurig Dr stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0105
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2738
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors16.7017
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Keurig Dr Pepper. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Keurig Dr. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Keurig Dr

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Keurig Dr Pepper. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Keurig Dr's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.3827.7629.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.9827.3628.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
27.2927.7228.15
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
31.3334.4338.22
Details

Keurig Dr After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Keurig Dr at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Keurig Dr or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Keurig Dr, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Keurig Dr Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Keurig Dr's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Keurig Dr's historical news coverage. Keurig Dr's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.38 and 29.14, respectively. We have considered Keurig Dr's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
27.76
27.76
After-hype Price
29.14
Upside
Keurig Dr is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Keurig Dr Pepper is based on 3 months time horizon.

Keurig Dr Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Keurig Dr is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Keurig Dr backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Keurig Dr, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04 
1.38
  0.02 
  0.02 
9 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
27.76
27.76
0.00 
306.67  
Notes

Keurig Dr Hype Timeline

On the 26th of January Keurig Dr Pepper is traded for 27.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Keurig is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Keurig Dr is about 305.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.78. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.49. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Keurig Dr Pepper has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.68. The entity last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of June 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Keurig Dr to cross-verify your projections.

Keurig Dr Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Keurig Dr's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Keurig Dr's future price movements. Getting to know how Keurig Dr's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Keurig Dr may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CCEPCoca Cola European Partners 0.24 12 per month 1.34 (0.05) 1.95 (2.11) 5.66 
ABEVAmbev SA ADR 1.25 20 per month 1.10  0.20  3.04 (2.09) 10.33 
SYYSysco 0.04 8 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.33 (2.10) 6.00 
KMBKimberly Clark 1.27 8 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.17 (1.59) 17.56 
HSYHershey Co 0.24 7 per month 1.46 (0.01) 2.37 (2.35) 6.22 
KVUEKenvue Inc(0.40)10 per month 0.95  0.11  2.27 (2.09) 15.22 
KRKroger Company 1.27 21 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.55 (2.68) 7.52 
KKellanova 0.24 23 per month 0.00  0.02  0.54 (0.48) 5.34 
ELEstee Lauder Companies 1.04 10 per month 1.74  0.07  3.89 (3.02) 8.23 
TGTTarget(0.68)6 per month 1.57  0.11  3.13 (3.02) 8.22 

Other Forecasting Options for Keurig Dr

For every potential investor in Keurig, whether a beginner or expert, Keurig Dr's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Keurig Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Keurig. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Keurig Dr's price trends.

Keurig Dr Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Keurig Dr stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Keurig Dr could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Keurig Dr by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Keurig Dr Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Keurig Dr stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Keurig Dr shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Keurig Dr stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Keurig Dr Pepper entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Keurig Dr Risk Indicators

The analysis of Keurig Dr's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Keurig Dr's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting keurig stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Keurig Dr

The number of cover stories for Keurig Dr depends on current market conditions and Keurig Dr's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Keurig Dr is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Keurig Dr's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Keurig Dr Short Properties

Keurig Dr's future price predictability will typically decrease when Keurig Dr's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Keurig Dr Pepper often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Keurig Dr's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Keurig Dr's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.4 B
Cash And Short Term Investments510 M

Additional Tools for Keurig Stock Analysis

When running Keurig Dr's price analysis, check to measure Keurig Dr's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Keurig Dr is operating at the current time. Most of Keurig Dr's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Keurig Dr's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Keurig Dr's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Keurig Dr to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.