Korea Closed Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

KF Fund  USD 20.63  0.04  0.19%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Korea Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 20.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.10. Korea Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Korea Closed's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Korea Closed works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Korea Closed Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Korea Closed on the next trading day is expected to be 20.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Korea Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Korea Closed's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Korea Closed Fund Forecast Pattern

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Korea Closed Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Korea Closed's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Korea Closed's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.17 and 21.93, respectively. We have considered Korea Closed's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.63
20.55
Expected Value
21.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Korea Closed fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Korea Closed fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0334
MADMean absolute deviation0.222
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0101
SAESum of the absolute errors13.1
When Korea Closed prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Korea Closed trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Korea Closed observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Korea Closed

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Korea Closed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.2120.5921.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.6020.9822.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Korea Closed. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Korea Closed's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Korea Closed's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Korea Closed.

Other Forecasting Options for Korea Closed

For every potential investor in Korea, whether a beginner or expert, Korea Closed's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Korea Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Korea. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Korea Closed's price trends.

View Korea Closed Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Korea Closed Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Korea Closed's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Korea Closed's current price.

Korea Closed Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Korea Closed fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Korea Closed shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Korea Closed fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Korea Closed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Korea Closed Risk Indicators

The analysis of Korea Closed's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Korea Closed's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting korea fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Korea Fund

Korea Closed financial ratios help investors to determine whether Korea Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Korea with respect to the benefits of owning Korea Closed security.
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