Innovator Small Etf Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| KFEB Etf | 28.79 0.32 1.10% |
Innovator Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Innovator Small stock prices and determine the direction of Innovator Small Cap's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Innovator Small's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength momentum indicator of Innovator Small's share price is at 58. This indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Innovator Small, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Innovator Small hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Innovator Small Cap from the perspective of Innovator Small response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Innovator Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 29.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.70. Innovator Small after-hype prediction price | USD 28.81 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Innovator Small Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Innovator price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Innovator using various technical indicators. When you analyze Innovator charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Innovator Small Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Innovator Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 29.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Innovator Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Innovator Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Innovator Small Etf Forecast Pattern
Innovator Small Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Innovator Small's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Innovator Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.41 and 29.93, respectively. We have considered Innovator Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Innovator Small etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Innovator Small etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7773 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2693 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0098 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.6972 |
Predictive Modules for Innovator Small
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Innovator Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Innovator Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Innovator Small Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Innovator Small at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Innovator Small or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Innovator Small, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Innovator Small Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Innovator Small is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Innovator Small backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Innovator Small, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.79 | 28.81 | 0.07 |
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Innovator Small Hype Timeline
Innovator Small Cap is now traded for 28.79. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.17. Innovator is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.81 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is anticipated to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Innovator Small is about 47.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.62. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out fundamental analysis of Innovator Small to check your projections.Innovator Small Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Innovator Small's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Innovator Small's future price movements. Getting to know how Innovator Small's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Innovator Small may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DHDG | FT Vest Equity | (14.29) | 6 per month | 0.32 | (0.04) | 0.60 | (0.75) | 1.88 | |
| MBCC | Northern Lights | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.15 | (1.25) | 3.34 | |
| DHLX | Diamond Hill Funds | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.67 | (0.03) | 1.34 | (1.33) | 3.59 | |
| DIHP | Dimensional International High | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.49 | 0.10 | 1.07 | (1.06) | 2.67 | |
| MCDS | JPMorgan Fundamental Data | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.70 | 0 | 1.44 | (1.28) | 3.68 | |
| MCHS | Matthews China Discovery | (0.08) | 3 per month | 0.74 | 0.10 | 1.68 | (1.44) | 3.68 | |
| DISV | Dimensional ETF Trust | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.35 | 0.22 | 1.40 | (0.82) | 2.57 | |
| DIVE | Tidal Trust I | 0.09 | 3 per month | 0.78 | 0.03 | 1.43 | (0.99) | 4.25 | |
| MCOW | Pacer SP MidCap | (0.07) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.66 | (1.71) | 4.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Innovator Small
For every potential investor in Innovator, whether a beginner or expert, Innovator Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Innovator Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Innovator. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Innovator Small's price trends.Innovator Small Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Innovator Small etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Innovator Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Innovator Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Innovator Small Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Innovator Small etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Innovator Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Innovator Small etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Innovator Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2143.62 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.94) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 28.73 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 28.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.32) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.03 |
Innovator Small Risk Indicators
The analysis of Innovator Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Innovator Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting innovator etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.578 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5877 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7248 | |||
| Variance | 0.5254 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.516 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3454 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Innovator Small
The number of cover stories for Innovator Small depends on current market conditions and Innovator Small's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Innovator Small is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Innovator Small's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Check out fundamental analysis of Innovator Small to check your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Investors evaluate Innovator Small Cap using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Innovator Small's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Innovator Small's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Innovator Small's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Innovator Small represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Innovator Small's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.