Kennametal Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| KMT Stock | USD 34.68 0.34 0.99% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Kennametal on the next trading day is expected to be 34.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.40. Kennametal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Kennametal's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.071 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2287 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.6448 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.8577 | Wall Street Target Price 29.875 |
Using Kennametal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kennametal from the perspective of Kennametal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kennametal using Kennametal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kennametal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kennametal's stock price.
Kennametal Short Interest
An investor who is long Kennametal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Kennametal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Kennametal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.6367 | Short Percent 0.0633 | Short Ratio 3.65 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.1 M | 50 Day MA 29.0452 |
Kennametal Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Kennametal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kennametal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kennametal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kennametal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Kennametal Implied Volatility | 0.75 |
Kennametal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kennametal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kennametal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kennametal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kennametal's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Kennametal on the next trading day is expected to be 34.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.40. Kennametal after-hype prediction price | USD 34.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Kennametal | Build AI portfolio with Kennametal Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kennametal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kennametal will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0469% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Kennametal trading at USD 34.68, that is roughly USD 0.0163 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kennametal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kennametal options at the current volatility level of 0.75%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Kennametal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kennametal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kennametal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kennametal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kennametal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kennametal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kennametal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kennametal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kennametal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kennametal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kennametal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kennametal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kennametal Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Kennametal on the next trading day is expected to be 34.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.60, mean absolute percentage error of 0.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kennametal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kennametal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kennametal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kennametal | Kennametal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kennametal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kennametal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kennametal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.02 and 37.34, respectively. We have considered Kennametal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kennametal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kennametal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1534 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3086 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.4 |
Predictive Modules for Kennametal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kennametal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kennametal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kennametal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kennametal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kennametal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kennametal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kennametal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kennametal's historical news coverage. Kennametal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.82 and 37.14, respectively. We have considered Kennametal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kennametal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kennametal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kennametal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kennametal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kennametal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kennametal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.74 | 2.66 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 2 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
34.68 | 34.48 | 0.58 |
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Kennametal Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Kennametal is traded for 34.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Kennametal is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 34.48. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.58%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.74%. The volatility of related hype on Kennametal is about 1927.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.58. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Kennametal was now reported as 16.45. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.56. Kennametal last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 19th of December 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kennametal to cross-verify your projections.Kennametal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kennametal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kennametal's future price movements. Getting to know how Kennametal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kennametal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CECO | CECO Environmental Corp | (0.98) | 11 per month | 2.68 | 0.15 | 4.25 | (4.56) | 13.46 | |
| ARCB | ArcBest Corp | (0.27) | 2 per month | 2.19 | 0.11 | 5.90 | (3.45) | 12.70 | |
| ENR | Energizer Holdings | 0.37 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.63 | (4.01) | 22.15 | |
| ICFI | ICF International | (0.44) | 8 per month | 1.78 | 0.04 | 4.00 | (2.89) | 8.94 | |
| CDRE | Cadre Holdings | 0.08 | 8 per month | 1.66 | 0.03 | 4.08 | (2.99) | 10.53 | |
| HLMN | Hillman Solutions Corp | (0.27) | 2 per month | 1.53 | 0.02 | 4.59 | (2.42) | 9.24 | |
| HTZ | Hertz Global Holdings | 0.37 | 4 per month | 3.32 | 0.04 | 7.63 | (5.46) | 43.57 | |
| MVST | Microvast Holdings | (0.1) | 27 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 6.02 | (8.87) | 18.37 | |
| HLIO | Helios Technologies | (0.27) | 2 per month | 1.71 | 0.11 | 4.70 | (3.11) | 9.88 | |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes | 0.13 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.65 | (2.96) | 13.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kennametal
For every potential investor in Kennametal, whether a beginner or expert, Kennametal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kennametal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kennametal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kennametal's price trends.Kennametal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kennametal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kennametal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kennametal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kennametal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kennametal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kennametal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kennametal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kennametal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Kennametal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kennametal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kennametal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kennametal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8126 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Variance | 6.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.6603 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kennametal
The number of cover stories for Kennametal depends on current market conditions and Kennametal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kennametal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kennametal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kennametal Short Properties
Kennametal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kennametal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kennametal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kennametal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kennametal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 140.5 M |
Additional Tools for Kennametal Stock Analysis
When running Kennametal's price analysis, check to measure Kennametal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kennametal is operating at the current time. Most of Kennametal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kennametal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kennametal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kennametal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.