Kestra Medical Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| KMTS Stock | 24.60 0.11 0.45% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kestra Medical Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 24.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.57. Kestra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Kestra Medical's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (2.31) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.18) | Wall Street Target Price 29 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.53) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.534 |
Using Kestra Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kestra Medical Technologies from the perspective of Kestra Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Kestra Medical Techn Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Kestra Medical's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kestra. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kestra can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kestra Medical Technologies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kestra Medical Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 24.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.57.
Kestra Medical after-hype prediction price | USD 24.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kestra Medical to cross-verify your projections. Kestra Medical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kestra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kestra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kestra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kestra Medical Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kestra Medical Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 24.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 1.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kestra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kestra Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kestra Medical Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kestra Medical | Kestra Medical Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kestra Medical Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kestra Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kestra Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.99 and 28.26, respectively. We have considered Kestra Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kestra Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kestra Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1321 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7429 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0293 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.5711 |
Predictive Modules for Kestra Medical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kestra Medical Techn. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kestra Medical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kestra Medical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kestra Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kestra Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kestra Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kestra Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kestra Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kestra Medical's historical news coverage. Kestra Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.95 and 28.23, respectively. We have considered Kestra Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kestra Medical is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kestra Medical Techn is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kestra Medical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kestra Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kestra Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kestra Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 3.64 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
24.60 | 24.59 | 0.04 |
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Kestra Medical Hype Timeline
Kestra Medical Techn is now traded for 24.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Kestra is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 24.59. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Kestra Medical is about 1250.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.57. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.96. Kestra Medical Techn had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kestra Medical to cross-verify your projections.Kestra Medical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kestra Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kestra Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Kestra Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kestra Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AZTA | Azenta Inc | (2.04) | 26 per month | 1.83 | 0.13 | 3.81 | (3.24) | 22.17 | |
| NVCR | Novocure | (2.04) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.95 | (4.90) | 14.06 | |
| STAA | STAAR Surgical | (2.04) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.47 | (6.71) | 15.52 | |
| BLFS | BioLife Solutions | (2.04) | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.07 | (4.03) | 13.74 | |
| WVE | Wave Life Sciences | (0.24) | 7 per month | 4.26 | 0.09 | 8.92 | (8.08) | 164.47 | |
| PLSE | Pulse Biosciences | 0.12 | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.85 | (4.35) | 12.19 | |
| NEOG | Neogen | (0.16) | 6 per month | 1.99 | 0.17 | 5.96 | (3.70) | 34.17 | |
| TERN | Terns Pharmaceuticals | 2.74 | 9 per month | 2.66 | 0.23 | 13.30 | (6.06) | 76.18 | |
| PGEN | Precigen | 2.74 | 16 per month | 4.66 | 0.06 | 8.52 | (7.08) | 38.64 | |
| EVO | Evotec SE ADR | 0.05 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.02 | (4.73) | 18.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kestra Medical
For every potential investor in Kestra, whether a beginner or expert, Kestra Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kestra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kestra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kestra Medical's price trends.Kestra Medical Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kestra Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kestra Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kestra Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kestra Medical Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kestra Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kestra Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kestra Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kestra Medical Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7333.18 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.10) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.52 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) |
Kestra Medical Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kestra Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kestra Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kestra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.55 | |||
| Variance | 12.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kestra Medical
The number of cover stories for Kestra Medical depends on current market conditions and Kestra Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kestra Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kestra Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kestra Medical Short Properties
Kestra Medical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kestra Medical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kestra Medical Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kestra Medical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kestra Medical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 237.6 M |
Additional Tools for Kestra Stock Analysis
When running Kestra Medical's price analysis, check to measure Kestra Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kestra Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Kestra Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kestra Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kestra Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kestra Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.