Karachi 100 Index Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| KSE100 Index | 94,574 3,506 3.57% |
Karachi 100 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Karachi 100 on the next trading day is expected to be 94,574 with a mean absolute deviation of 609.87, mean absolute percentage error of 691,599, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37,202.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Karachi Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Karachi 100's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Karachi 100 Index Forecast Pattern
Karachi 100 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Karachi 100's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Karachi 100's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 94,573 and 94,575, respectively. We have considered Karachi 100's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Karachi 100 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Karachi 100 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 131.5573 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -267.0633 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 609.8711 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0069 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37202.14 |
Predictive Modules for Karachi 100
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Karachi 100. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Karachi 100
For every potential investor in Karachi, whether a beginner or expert, Karachi 100's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Karachi Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Karachi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Karachi 100's price trends.Karachi 100 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Karachi 100 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Karachi 100 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Karachi 100 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Karachi 100 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Karachi 100's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Karachi 100's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Karachi 100 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Karachi 100 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Karachi 100 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Karachi 100 index market strength indicators, traders can identify Karachi 100 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 29.3 M | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.62) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 97000.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 96191.45 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4,179) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3,506) |
Karachi 100 Risk Indicators
The analysis of Karachi 100's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Karachi 100's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting karachi index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5676 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7089 | |||
| Variance | 0.5025 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3214 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.14) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.