Kratos Defense Stock Forward View
| KTOS Stock | USD 85.25 6.08 6.66% |
Kratos Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Kratos Defense's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.5 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1762 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.5246 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.7659 | Wall Street Target Price 117.6316 |
Using Kratos Defense hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kratos Defense Security from the perspective of Kratos Defense response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kratos Defense using Kratos Defense's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kratos using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kratos Defense's stock price.
Kratos Defense Short Interest
An investor who is long Kratos Defense may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Kratos Defense and may potentially protect profits, hedge Kratos Defense with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 68.4027 | Short Percent 0.0544 | Short Ratio 2.79 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.7 M | 50 Day MA 90.882 |
Kratos Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kratos Defense Security on the next trading day is expected to be 60.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 318.77.Kratos Defense Security Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Kratos Defense's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Kratos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Kratos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Kratos Defense Security. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Kratos Defense's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Kratos Defense.
Kratos Defense Implied Volatility | 0.85 |
Kratos Defense's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kratos Defense Security stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kratos Defense's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kratos Defense stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kratos Defense's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kratos Defense Security on the next trading day is expected to be 60.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 318.77. Kratos Defense after-hype prediction price | USD 83.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kratos Defense to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kratos contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kratos Defense Security will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0531% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Kratos Defense trading at USD 85.25, that is roughly USD 0.0453 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kratos Defense's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kratos Defense Security options at the current volatility level of 0.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Kratos Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kratos Defense's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kratos Defense's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kratos Defense stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kratos Defense's open interest, investors have to compare it to Kratos Defense's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kratos Defense is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kratos. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kratos Defense Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kratos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kratos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kratos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Kratos Defense's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1999-06-30 | Previous Quarter 783.6 M | Current Value 565.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 134 M |
Kratos Defense Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Kratos Defense Security on the next trading day is expected to be 60.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.14, mean absolute percentage error of 40.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 318.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kratos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kratos Defense's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kratos Defense Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kratos Defense | Kratos Defense Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Kratos Defense Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kratos Defense's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kratos Defense's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 55.97 and 65.66, respectively. We have considered Kratos Defense's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kratos Defense stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kratos Defense stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.6464 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.1415 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0568 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 318.7712 |
Predictive Modules for Kratos Defense
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kratos Defense Security. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Kratos Defense After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kratos Defense at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kratos Defense or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kratos Defense, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kratos Defense Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kratos Defense's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kratos Defense's historical news coverage. Kratos Defense's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 78.53 and 88.15, respectively. We have considered Kratos Defense's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kratos Defense is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kratos Defense Security is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kratos Defense Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kratos Defense is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kratos Defense backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kratos Defense, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 4.84 | 1.76 | 0.24 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
85.25 | 83.34 | 2.24 |
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Kratos Defense Hype Timeline
Kratos Defense Security is now traded for 85.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.76, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.24. Kratos is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 83.34. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 66.03%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.24%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Kratos Defense is about 474.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 85.01. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Kratos Defense Security had 1:10 split on the 11th of September 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kratos Defense to cross-verify your projections.Kratos Defense Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kratos Defense's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kratos Defense's future price movements. Getting to know how Kratos Defense's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kratos Defense may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WWD | Woodward | (9.09) | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.20 | 3.61 | (2.14) | 16.03 | |
| TXT | Textron | 0.99 | 7 per month | 1.53 | 0.11 | 2.34 | (1.64) | 11.43 | |
| AVAV | AeroVironment | (9.36) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.91 | (8.61) | 31.86 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 9.33 | 8 per month | 2.49 | 0.08 | 3.93 | (3.03) | 10.02 | |
| GFL | Gfl Environmental Holdings | (0.14) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.18 | (1.80) | 6.26 | |
| APG | Api Group Corp | 0.09 | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.12 | 3.41 | (2.16) | 8.44 | |
| MTZ | MasTec Inc | (0.17) | 16 per month | 2.45 | 0.11 | 4.00 | (4.74) | 13.07 | |
| ZTO | ZTO Express | (0.33) | 8 per month | 0.90 | 0.19 | 2.73 | (1.81) | 7.33 | |
| KRMN | Karman Holdings | (0.50) | 11 per month | 4.54 | 0.03 | 8.60 | (6.43) | 22.76 | |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | (1.02) | 7 per month | 0.76 | 0.28 | 5.29 | (2.39) | 20.72 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kratos Defense
For every potential investor in Kratos, whether a beginner or expert, Kratos Defense's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kratos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kratos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kratos Defense's price trends.Kratos Defense Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kratos Defense stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kratos Defense could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kratos Defense by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kratos Defense Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kratos Defense stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kratos Defense shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kratos Defense stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kratos Defense Security entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 309187.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.75) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.93 | |||
| Day Median Price | 88.55 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 87.45 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (6.34) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (6.08) |
Kratos Defense Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kratos Defense's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kratos Defense's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kratos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.76 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.1 | |||
| Variance | 26.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 26.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 24.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.80) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kratos Defense
The number of cover stories for Kratos Defense depends on current market conditions and Kratos Defense's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kratos Defense is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kratos Defense's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kratos Defense Short Properties
Kratos Defense's future price predictability will typically decrease when Kratos Defense's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kratos Defense Security often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kratos Defense's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kratos Defense's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 150.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 329.3 M |
Additional Tools for Kratos Stock Analysis
When running Kratos Defense's price analysis, check to measure Kratos Defense's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kratos Defense is operating at the current time. Most of Kratos Defense's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kratos Defense's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kratos Defense's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kratos Defense to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.