Lululemon Athletica Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

L1UL34 Stock   481.00  18.99  4.11%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Lululemon Athletica on the next trading day is expected to be 463.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 26.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,095. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Lululemon Athletica's stock prices and determine the direction of Lululemon Athletica's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lululemon Athletica's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
  
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Lululemon Athletica is based on a synthetically constructed Lululemon Athleticadaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Lululemon Athletica 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Lululemon Athletica on the next trading day is expected to be 463.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 26.71, mean absolute percentage error of 908.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,095.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lululemon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lululemon Athletica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lululemon Athletica Stock Forecast Pattern

Lululemon Athletica Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lululemon Athletica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lululemon Athletica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 460.93 and 465.88, respectively. We have considered Lululemon Athletica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
481.00
460.93
Downside
463.40
Expected Value
465.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lululemon Athletica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lululemon Athletica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria88.1651
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -25.7824
MADMean absolute deviation26.7081
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0612
SAESum of the absolute errors1095.034
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Lululemon Athletica 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Lululemon Athletica

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lululemon Athletica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Lululemon Athletica. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Lululemon Athletica's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Lululemon Athletica's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Lululemon Athletica.

Other Forecasting Options for Lululemon Athletica

For every potential investor in Lululemon, whether a beginner or expert, Lululemon Athletica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lululemon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lululemon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lululemon Athletica's price trends.

Lululemon Athletica Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lululemon Athletica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lululemon Athletica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lululemon Athletica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lululemon Athletica Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lululemon Athletica's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lululemon Athletica's current price.

Lululemon Athletica Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lululemon Athletica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lululemon Athletica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lululemon Athletica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lululemon Athletica entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lululemon Athletica Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lululemon Athletica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lululemon Athletica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lululemon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.