Lululemon Athletica Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| L1UL34 Stock | 481.00 18.99 4.11% |
Lululemon |
Lululemon Athletica Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lululemon Athletica on the next trading day is expected to be 482.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.94, mean absolute percentage error of 121.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 468.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lululemon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lululemon Athletica's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lululemon Athletica Stock Forecast Pattern
Lululemon Athletica Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lululemon Athletica's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lululemon Athletica's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 480.46 and 485.38, respectively. We have considered Lululemon Athletica's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lululemon Athletica stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lululemon Athletica stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.7684 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.9425 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 468.6072 |
Predictive Modules for Lululemon Athletica
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lululemon Athletica. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Lululemon Athletica. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Lululemon Athletica's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Lululemon Athletica's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Lululemon Athletica.Other Forecasting Options for Lululemon Athletica
For every potential investor in Lululemon, whether a beginner or expert, Lululemon Athletica's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lululemon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lululemon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lululemon Athletica's price trends.Lululemon Athletica Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lululemon Athletica stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lululemon Athletica could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lululemon Athletica by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lululemon Athletica Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lululemon Athletica's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lululemon Athletica's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lululemon Athletica Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lululemon Athletica stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lululemon Athletica shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lululemon Athletica stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lululemon Athletica entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lululemon Athletica Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lululemon Athletica's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lululemon Athletica's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lululemon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Variance | 5.94 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.