Liberty Global Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| LBTYB Stock | USD 10.80 0.18 1.69% |
Liberty Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Liberty Global stock prices and determine the direction of Liberty Global PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Liberty Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Liberty Global's share price is approaching 46. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Liberty Global, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 |
Using Liberty Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Liberty Global PLC from the perspective of Liberty Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Liberty Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Liberty Global PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 10.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.49.Liberty Global PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Liberty Global's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Liberty. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Liberty can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Liberty Global PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Liberty Global's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Liberty Global.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Liberty Global PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 10.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.49. Liberty Global after-hype prediction price | USD 10.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Global to cross-verify your projections. Liberty Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Liberty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Liberty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Liberty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Liberty Global Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Liberty Global PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 10.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Liberty Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Liberty Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Liberty Global Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Liberty Global | Liberty Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Liberty Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Liberty Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Liberty Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.92 and 12.47, respectively. We have considered Liberty Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Liberty Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Liberty Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7557 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2539 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0233 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.4901 |
Predictive Modules for Liberty Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Liberty Global PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Liberty Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Liberty Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Liberty Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Liberty Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Liberty Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Liberty Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Liberty Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Liberty Global's historical news coverage. Liberty Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.49 and 13.07, respectively. We have considered Liberty Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Liberty Global is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Liberty Global PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Liberty Global Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Liberty Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Liberty Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Liberty Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.27 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.80 | 10.78 | 0.19 |
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Liberty Global Hype Timeline
Liberty Global PLC is now traded for 10.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Liberty is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.78. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Liberty Global is about 1952.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.79. About 98.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.29. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Liberty Global PLC recorded a loss per share of 6.06. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1948:1000 split on the 4th of March 2014. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Global to cross-verify your projections.Liberty Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Liberty Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Liberty Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Liberty Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Liberty Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VEON | VEON | 0.09 | 9 per month | 1.94 | (0.01) | 2.67 | (3.33) | 20.18 | |
| LUMN | Lumen Technologies | 0.01 | 10 per month | 4.61 | 0.06 | 10.25 | (7.57) | 27.52 | |
| PHI | PLDT Inc ADR | 0.22 | 6 per month | 0.74 | 0.16 | 2.33 | (1.68) | 7.29 | |
| TEO | Telecom Argentina SA | (0.09) | 7 per month | 1.77 | 0.16 | 7.14 | (3.57) | 43.95 | |
| TDS | Telephone and Data | (0.42) | 6 per month | 1.38 | 0.08 | 2.81 | (2.35) | 8.49 | |
| AD | Array Digital Infrastructure | (0.19) | 8 per month | 1.94 | 0.08 | 3.45 | (3.12) | 8.92 | |
| KYIV | Kyivstar Group Ltd | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.07 | (5.98) | 18.64 | |
| DJT | Trump Media Technology | (0.49) | 11 per month | 3.76 | (0.01) | 4.67 | (5.28) | 52.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Liberty Global
For every potential investor in Liberty, whether a beginner or expert, Liberty Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Liberty Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Liberty. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Liberty Global's price trends.Liberty Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Liberty Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Liberty Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Liberty Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Liberty Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Liberty Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Liberty Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Liberty Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Liberty Global PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Liberty Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Liberty Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Liberty Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting liberty stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.3 | |||
| Variance | 5.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.45 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Liberty Global
The number of cover stories for Liberty Global depends on current market conditions and Liberty Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Liberty Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Liberty Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Liberty Global Short Properties
Liberty Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Liberty Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Liberty Global PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Liberty Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Liberty Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 363.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Liberty Global to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Is Diversified Telecommunication Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Liberty Global. If investors know Liberty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Liberty Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.68) | Earnings Share (6.06) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.129 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Liberty Global PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Liberty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Liberty Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Liberty Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Liberty Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Liberty Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Liberty Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Liberty Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Liberty Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.