Lear Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| LEA Stock | USD 118.95 0.95 0.81% |
Lear Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lear stock prices and determine the direction of Lear Corporation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Lear's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Lear's share price is at 51. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lear, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.9669 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.2381 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.0978 | Wall Street Target Price 127.6364 |
Using Lear hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lear Corporation from the perspective of Lear response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lear using Lear's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lear using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lear's stock price.
Lear Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lear's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lear. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lear stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 102.8171 | Short Percent 0.0666 | Short Ratio 3.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 115.3162 |
Lear Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lear Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 118.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.85.Lear Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lear's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lear. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lear can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lear Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lear's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lear.
Lear Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Lear's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lear Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lear's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lear stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lear's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lear Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 118.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.85. Lear after-hype prediction price | USD 118.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lear to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lear contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lear Corporation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Lear trading at USD 118.95, that is roughly USD 0.0461 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lear's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lear Corporation options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Lear Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lear's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lear's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lear stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lear's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lear's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lear is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lear. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lear Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lear price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lear using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lear charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lear Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lear Corporation on the next trading day is expected to be 118.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.64, mean absolute percentage error of 4.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 96.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lear Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lear's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lear Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lear | Lear Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lear Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lear's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lear's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.06 and 120.76, respectively. We have considered Lear's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lear stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lear stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2276 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.6415 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0145 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 96.8476 |
Predictive Modules for Lear
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lear. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lear's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lear After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lear at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lear or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lear, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lear Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lear's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lear's historical news coverage. Lear's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 116.21 and 119.91, respectively. We have considered Lear's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lear is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lear is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lear Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lear is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lear backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lear, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.16 | 1.85 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
118.95 | 118.06 | 0.05 |
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Lear Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February Lear is traded for 118.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.13. Lear is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 118.06 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.16%. The volatility of related hype on Lear is about 234.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 119.08. The company reported the last year's revenue of 23.3 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 506.6 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.73 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lear to cross-verify your projections.Lear Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lear's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lear's future price movements. Getting to know how Lear's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lear may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GNTX | Gentex | (0.12) | 9 per month | 1.22 | (0.02) | 2.65 | (2.24) | 8.90 | |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Holdings | (1.76) | 8 per month | 0.89 | 0.25 | 3.31 | (2.09) | 7.29 | |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | 6.86 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.58 | (2.48) | 11.48 | |
| KMX | CarMax Inc | 1.78 | 10 per month | 5.14 | 0.01 | 5.33 | (4.21) | 24.48 | |
| MAT | Mattel Inc | (0.06) | 8 per month | 1.74 | 0.06 | 3.56 | (3.21) | 8.19 | |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | (2.31) | 11 per month | 3.15 | 0.03 | 5.28 | (4.20) | 25.85 | |
| THO | Thor Industries | 4.81 | 9 per month | 2.30 | 0.01 | 3.76 | (3.01) | 14.53 | |
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | (0.02) | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0 | 3.92 | (2.69) | 10.34 | |
| WH | Wyndham Hotels Resorts | (1.31) | 9 per month | 1.52 | (0.02) | 3.15 | (2.87) | 9.57 | |
| DORM | Dorman Products | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.17 | (2.08) | 6.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lear
For every potential investor in Lear, whether a beginner or expert, Lear's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lear Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lear. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lear's price trends.Lear Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lear stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lear could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lear by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lear Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lear stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lear shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lear stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lear Corporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lear Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lear's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lear's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lear stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Variance | 3.46 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lear
The number of cover stories for Lear depends on current market conditions and Lear's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lear is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lear's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lear Short Properties
Lear's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lear's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lear Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lear's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lear's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 56.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lear to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lear. Expected growth trajectory for Lear significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Lear assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 3.08 | Earnings Share 8.26 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 |
Investors evaluate Lear using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Lear's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Lear's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Lear's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lear represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Lear's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.