Lennar Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LEN-B Stock | USD 104.43 1.57 1.48% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lennar on the next trading day is expected to be 104.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 224.28. Lennar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lennar stock prices and determine the direction of Lennar's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lennar's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Lennar's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.53) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Using Lennar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lennar from the perspective of Lennar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Lennar Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lennar's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lennar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lennar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lennar. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lennar on the next trading day is expected to be 104.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 224.28.
Lennar after-hype prediction price | USD 104.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennar to cross-verify your projections. Lennar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lennar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lennar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lennar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lennar Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Lennar's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1987-08-31 | Previous Quarter 1.7 B | Current Value 3.5 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.2 B |
Lennar Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lennar on the next trading day is expected to be 104.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.62, mean absolute percentage error of 18.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 224.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lennar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lennar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lennar Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lennar | Lennar Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lennar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lennar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lennar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 101.51 and 106.57, respectively. We have considered Lennar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lennar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lennar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.8731 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.6174 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0329 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 224.2784 |
Predictive Modules for Lennar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lennar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lennar After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lennar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lennar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lennar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lennar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lennar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lennar's historical news coverage. Lennar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 101.87 and 106.93, respectively. We have considered Lennar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lennar is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lennar is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lennar Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lennar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lennar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lennar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 2.53 | 0.03 | 0.72 | 26 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 26 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
104.43 | 104.40 | 0.03 |
|
Lennar Hype Timeline
Lennar is now traded for 104.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.72. Lennar is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 104.4. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Lennar is about 70.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 103.71. About 71.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.17. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lennar has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.26. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.98. The firm last dividend was issued on the 4th of February 2026. Lennar had 1052:1000 split on the 21st of January 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 26 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennar to cross-verify your projections.Lennar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lennar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lennar's future price movements. Getting to know how Lennar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lennar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PHM | PulteGroup | (0.72) | 22 per month | 1.45 | (0.02) | 5.00 | (2.49) | 9.97 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | (38.66) | 8 per month | 1.21 | (0.06) | 2.66 | (1.92) | 5.29 | |
| DHI | DR Horton | 0.75 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.73 | (3.36) | 10.93 | |
| STLA | Stellantis NV | (0.16) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.66 | (4.19) | 13.57 | |
| CUK | Carnival Plc ADS | (0.16) | 2 per month | 2.34 | 0.04 | 3.53 | (3.21) | 20.84 | |
| TSCO | Tractor Supply | (5.69) | 21 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.62 | (2.17) | 5.92 | |
| ROL | Rollins | 0.62 | 10 per month | 1.06 | 0.08 | 1.80 | (1.68) | 11.46 | |
| GELHY | Geely Automobile Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.40 | (2.76) | 6.06 | |
| TOL | Toll Brothers | (2.98) | 2 per month | 1.31 | 0.02 | 4.26 | (2.61) | 10.06 | |
| VIK | Viking Holdings | 11.15 | 7 per month | 1.50 | 0.08 | 3.76 | (2.41) | 8.50 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lennar
For every potential investor in Lennar, whether a beginner or expert, Lennar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lennar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lennar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lennar's price trends.Lennar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lennar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lennar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lennar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lennar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lennar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lennar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lennar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lennar entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1332.63 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.81) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 105.22 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 104.95 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.57) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.57) |
Lennar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lennar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lennar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lennar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.45 | |||
| Variance | 6.02 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lennar
The number of cover stories for Lennar depends on current market conditions and Lennar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lennar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lennar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Lennar Short Properties
Lennar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lennar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lennar often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lennar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lennar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 257.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lennar to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lennar Stock refer to our How to Trade Lennar Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.