Littelfuse Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| LFS Stock | EUR 218.00 0.00 0.00% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Littelfuse on the next trading day is expected to be 218.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 175.07. Littelfuse Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Littelfuse stock prices and determine the direction of Littelfuse's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Littelfuse's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of Littelfuse's share price is approaching 48. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Littelfuse, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Littelfuse hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Littelfuse from the perspective of Littelfuse response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Littelfuse on the next trading day is expected to be 218.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 175.07. Littelfuse after-hype prediction price | EUR 218.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Littelfuse |
Littelfuse Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Littelfuse price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Littelfuse using various technical indicators. When you analyze Littelfuse charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Littelfuse Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Littelfuse on the next trading day is expected to be 218.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97, mean absolute percentage error of 16.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 175.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Littelfuse Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Littelfuse's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Littelfuse Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Littelfuse | Littelfuse Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Littelfuse Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Littelfuse's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Littelfuse's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 216.35 and 219.66, respectively. We have considered Littelfuse's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Littelfuse stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Littelfuse stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3518 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9673 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 175.0678 |
Predictive Modules for Littelfuse
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Littelfuse. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Littelfuse After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Littelfuse at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Littelfuse or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Littelfuse, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Littelfuse Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Littelfuse's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Littelfuse's historical news coverage. Littelfuse's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 216.36 and 219.64, respectively. We have considered Littelfuse's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Littelfuse is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Littelfuse is based on 3 months time horizon.
Littelfuse Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Littelfuse is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Littelfuse backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Littelfuse, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
218.00 | 218.00 | 0.00 |
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Littelfuse Hype Timeline
Littelfuse is now traded for 218.00on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Littelfuse is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Littelfuse is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 218.00. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.36. Littelfuse last dividend was issued on the 20th of February 1970. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Littelfuse to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Littelfuse Stock refer to our How to Trade Littelfuse Stock guide.Littelfuse Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Littelfuse's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Littelfuse's future price movements. Getting to know how Littelfuse's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Littelfuse may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| P4Q | Perseus Mining Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.94 | 0.13 | 3.70 | (3.40) | 8.60 | |
| I43 | Jacquet Metal Service | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.65 | 0.09 | 6.26 | (3.45) | 11.57 | |
| 7JZ | ARDAGH METAL PACDL 0001 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.08 | 0.04 | 5.39 | (5.30) | 22.38 | |
| 1ZO | ZhongAn Online P | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.07 | (0.03) | 4.37 | (3.66) | 11.73 | |
| 8SX0 | BLUE MOON METALS | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.58 | 0.1 | 9.16 | (6.15) | 22.31 | |
| 5PMA | GREENX METALS LTD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.02 | 0.12 | 7.55 | (6.12) | 27.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Littelfuse
For every potential investor in Littelfuse, whether a beginner or expert, Littelfuse's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Littelfuse Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Littelfuse. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Littelfuse's price trends.Littelfuse Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Littelfuse stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Littelfuse could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Littelfuse by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Littelfuse Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Littelfuse stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Littelfuse shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Littelfuse stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Littelfuse entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Littelfuse Risk Indicators
The analysis of Littelfuse's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Littelfuse's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting littelfuse stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Littelfuse
The number of cover stories for Littelfuse depends on current market conditions and Littelfuse's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Littelfuse is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Littelfuse's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Littelfuse Short Properties
Littelfuse's future price predictability will typically decrease when Littelfuse's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Littelfuse often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Littelfuse's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Littelfuse's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.8 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 134.9 M |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Littelfuse Stock
When determining whether Littelfuse is a strong investment it is important to analyze Littelfuse's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Littelfuse's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Littelfuse Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Littelfuse to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Littelfuse Stock refer to our How to Trade Littelfuse Stock guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.