Lichen China Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| LICN Stock | 2.95 0.05 1.67% |
Lichen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Lichen China's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lichen China's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lichen China fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Lichen China's share price is approaching 44. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lichen China, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) |
Using Lichen China hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lichen China Limited from the perspective of Lichen China response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lichen China Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.98. Lichen China after-hype prediction price | USD 2.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lichen China to cross-verify your projections. Lichen China Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lichen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lichen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lichen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lichen China Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lichen China Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.98.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lichen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lichen China's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lichen China Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lichen China | Lichen China Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lichen China Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lichen China's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lichen China's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 9.24, respectively. We have considered Lichen China's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lichen China stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lichen China stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.0771 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0175 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1014 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0313 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.98 |
Predictive Modules for Lichen China
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lichen China Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lichen China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lichen China After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lichen China at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lichen China or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lichen China, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lichen China Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lichen China's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lichen China's historical news coverage. Lichen China's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 9.25, respectively. We have considered Lichen China's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lichen China is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lichen China Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lichen China Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lichen China is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lichen China backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lichen China, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 6.27 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.95 | 2.98 | 1.02 |
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Lichen China Hype Timeline
Lichen China Limited is now traded for 2.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. Lichen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 2.98 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 1.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Lichen China is about 1514.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.86. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 41.48 M. Net Loss for the year was (6.12 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 21.3 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lichen China to cross-verify your projections.Lichen China Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lichen China's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lichen China's future price movements. Getting to know how Lichen China's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lichen China may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BLMZ | BloomZ Ordinary Shares | (0.24) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 27.27 | (38.33) | 192.47 | |
| SBLX | StableX Technologies | (2.12) | 36 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 10.26 | (13.00) | 32.50 | |
| DGLY | Digital Ally | 0.12 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 15.42 | (12.15) | 45.61 | |
| SGLY | Singularity Future Technology | (0.24) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 15.56 | (10.45) | 37.12 | |
| ICON | Icon Energy Corp | (0.65) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 14.00 | (14.29) | 44.34 | |
| RAYA | Erayak Power Solution | (0.15) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 13.75 | (14.07) | 54.24 | |
| PMAX | Powell Max Limited | (0.18) | 6 per month | 6.96 | 0.04 | 12.97 | (13.19) | 48.86 | |
| IVDA | Iveda Solutions | 0.06 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 16.67 | (12.64) | 50.60 | |
| ZCAR | Zoomcar Holdings | 0.45 | 34 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 13.56 | (17.18) | 61.00 | |
| SMX | SMX Public Limited | (1.19) | 9 per month | 21.44 | 0.12 | 135.45 | (37.14) | 319.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lichen China
For every potential investor in Lichen, whether a beginner or expert, Lichen China's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lichen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lichen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lichen China's price trends.Lichen China Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lichen China stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lichen China could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lichen China by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lichen China Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lichen China stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lichen China shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lichen China stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lichen China Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lichen China Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lichen China's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lichen China's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lichen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.1 | |||
| Variance | 37.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lichen China
The number of cover stories for Lichen China depends on current market conditions and Lichen China's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lichen China is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lichen China's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lichen China Short Properties
Lichen China's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lichen China's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lichen China Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lichen China's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lichen China's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 26.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lichen China to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Will Environmental & Facilities Services sector continue expanding? Could Lichen diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lichen China. Expected growth trajectory for Lichen significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Lichen China data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.51) | Earnings Share (73.02) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.21) | Return On Assets |
Understanding Lichen China Limited requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Lichen's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Lichen China's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Lichen China's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Lichen China's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lichen China represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Lichen China's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.