Lixte Biotechnology Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| LIXT Stock | USD 3.33 0.02 0.60% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lixte Biotechnology Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.90. Lixte Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Lixte Biotechnology's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Lixte Biotechnology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lixte Biotechnology Holdings from the perspective of Lixte Biotechnology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lixte Biotechnology Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.90. Lixte Biotechnology after-hype prediction price | USD 3.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lixte Biotechnology to cross-verify your projections. Lixte Biotechnology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lixte price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lixte using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lixte charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lixte Biotechnology Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Lixte Biotechnology Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lixte Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lixte Biotechnology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lixte Biotechnology Stock Forecast Pattern
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Lixte Biotechnology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lixte Biotechnology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lixte Biotechnology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.57, respectively. We have considered Lixte Biotechnology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lixte Biotechnology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lixte Biotechnology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.8588 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0253 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1338 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.895 |
Predictive Modules for Lixte Biotechnology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lixte Biotechnology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lixte Biotechnology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lixte Biotechnology After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lixte Biotechnology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lixte Biotechnology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lixte Biotechnology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lixte Biotechnology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lixte Biotechnology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lixte Biotechnology's historical news coverage. Lixte Biotechnology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.17 and 7.61, respectively. We have considered Lixte Biotechnology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lixte Biotechnology is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lixte Biotechnology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lixte Biotechnology Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lixte Biotechnology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lixte Biotechnology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lixte Biotechnology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 4.24 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.33 | 3.37 | 1.20 |
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Lixte Biotechnology Hype Timeline
Lixte Biotechnology is now traded for 3.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Lixte is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 1.2%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.27%. The volatility of related hype on Lixte Biotechnology is about 4371.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.30. Net Loss for the year was (3.59 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lixte Biotechnology to cross-verify your projections.Lixte Biotechnology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lixte Biotechnology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lixte Biotechnology's future price movements. Getting to know how Lixte Biotechnology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lixte Biotechnology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KAPA | Kairos Pharma | 0.12 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 9.41 | (9.28) | 26.15 | |
| LEXX | Lexaria Bioscience Corp | (0.18) | 15 per month | 8.87 | 0.01 | 8.94 | (9.68) | 42.53 | |
| ALLR | Allarity Therapeutics | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 7.07 | (7.48) | 19.82 | |
| CING | Cingulate | (0.33) | 7 per month | 4.51 | 0.09 | 7.46 | (6.75) | 20.19 | |
| BCTX | Briacell Therapeutics Corp | (0.42) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 13.96 | (9.09) | 98.43 | |
| PULM | Pulmatrix | (0.04) | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 6.62 | (5.75) | 51.95 | |
| ENTO | Entero Therapeutics | (0.17) | 10 per month | 7.81 | 0.08 | 16.50 | (17.06) | 56.75 | |
| HOTH | Hoth Therapeutics | (0.18) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 4.81 | (6.84) | 14.85 | |
| CLSD | Clearside Biomedical | 0.36 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 7.96 | (17.54) | 83.67 | |
| CASI | CASI Pharmaceuticals | (0.07) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.88 | (7.69) | 32.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lixte Biotechnology
For every potential investor in Lixte, whether a beginner or expert, Lixte Biotechnology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lixte Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lixte. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lixte Biotechnology's price trends.Lixte Biotechnology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lixte Biotechnology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lixte Biotechnology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lixte Biotechnology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lixte Biotechnology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lixte Biotechnology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lixte Biotechnology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lixte Biotechnology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lixte Biotechnology Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lixte Biotechnology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lixte Biotechnology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lixte Biotechnology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lixte stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.23 | |||
| Variance | 17.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lixte Biotechnology
The number of cover stories for Lixte Biotechnology depends on current market conditions and Lixte Biotechnology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lixte Biotechnology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lixte Biotechnology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lixte Biotechnology Short Properties
Lixte Biotechnology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lixte Biotechnology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lixte Biotechnology Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lixte Biotechnology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lixte Biotechnology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 M |
Additional Tools for Lixte Stock Analysis
When running Lixte Biotechnology's price analysis, check to measure Lixte Biotechnology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lixte Biotechnology is operating at the current time. Most of Lixte Biotechnology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lixte Biotechnology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lixte Biotechnology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lixte Biotechnology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.