Lloyds Banking Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| LLPC Stock | 161.00 0.75 0.47% |
Lloyds Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At the present time The value of RSI of Lloyds Banking's share price is above 80 . This indicates that the stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 85
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Lloyds Banking hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lloyds Banking Group from the perspective of Lloyds Banking response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Lloyds Banking Group on the next trading day is expected to be 161.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.82. Lloyds Banking after-hype prediction price | GBX 161.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Lloyds |
Lloyds Banking Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lloyds price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lloyds using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lloyds charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lloyds Banking Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Lloyds Banking Group on the next trading day is expected to be 161.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lloyds Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lloyds Banking's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lloyds Banking Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lloyds Banking | Lloyds Banking Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lloyds Banking Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lloyds Banking's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lloyds Banking's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 161.59 and 161.95, respectively. We have considered Lloyds Banking's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lloyds Banking stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lloyds Banking stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.262 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.538 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0035 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.8171 |
Predictive Modules for Lloyds Banking
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lloyds Banking Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lloyds Banking After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lloyds Banking at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lloyds Banking or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lloyds Banking, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lloyds Banking Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lloyds Banking's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lloyds Banking's historical news coverage. Lloyds Banking's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 160.83 and 161.19, respectively. We have considered Lloyds Banking's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lloyds Banking is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lloyds Banking Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lloyds Banking Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lloyds Banking is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lloyds Banking backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lloyds Banking, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
161.00 | 161.01 | 0.01 |
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Lloyds Banking Hype Timeline
Lloyds Banking Group is now traded for 161.00on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. Lloyds is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 161.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Lloyds Banking is about 27.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 161.07. Net Income was 4.66 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 17.51 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lloyds Banking to cross-verify your projections.Lloyds Banking Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lloyds Banking's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lloyds Banking's future price movements. Getting to know how Lloyds Banking's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lloyds Banking may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 0LTG | Waste Management | 0.59 | 8 per month | 1.17 | 0.10 | 1.83 | (1.78) | 6.72 | |
| TAVI | Tavistock Investments Plc | 0.69 | 3 per month | 1.94 | 0.04 | 6.94 | (5.33) | 25.58 | |
| ARR | Aurora Investment Trust | 2.55 | 6 per month | 0.81 | (0.03) | 1.52 | (1.28) | 4.00 | |
| LIT | Litigation Capital Management | (1.80) | 3 per month | 4.03 | 0.01 | 8.18 | (5.26) | 29.45 | |
| 0RKH | BW Offshore | 2.50 | 1 per month | 1.27 | 0.21 | 3.46 | (2.41) | 16.46 | |
| JUP | Jupiter Fund Management | (0.80) | 6 per month | 0.83 | 0.20 | 3.41 | (1.49) | 10.21 | |
| OIT | Odyssean Investment Trust | 1.00 | 4 per month | 0.77 | 0.10 | 2.15 | (1.64) | 4.17 | |
| LIV | Livermore Investments Group | 0.50 | 4 per month | 0.96 | 0.1 | 2.30 | (2.59) | 15.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lloyds Banking
For every potential investor in Lloyds, whether a beginner or expert, Lloyds Banking's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lloyds Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lloyds. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lloyds Banking's price trends.Lloyds Banking Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lloyds Banking stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lloyds Banking could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lloyds Banking by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lloyds Banking Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lloyds Banking stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lloyds Banking shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lloyds Banking stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lloyds Banking Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lloyds Banking Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lloyds Banking's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lloyds Banking's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lloyds stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1306 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1779 | |||
| Variance | 0.0316 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lloyds Banking
The number of cover stories for Lloyds Banking depends on current market conditions and Lloyds Banking's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lloyds Banking is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lloyds Banking's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Lloyds Banking Short Properties
Lloyds Banking's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lloyds Banking's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lloyds Banking Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lloyds Banking's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lloyds Banking's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.8 B | |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0193 |
Additional Tools for Lloyds Stock Analysis
When running Lloyds Banking's price analysis, check to measure Lloyds Banking's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lloyds Banking is operating at the current time. Most of Lloyds Banking's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lloyds Banking's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lloyds Banking's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lloyds Banking to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.