Matahari Department Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Matahari Department works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Matahari Department Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Matahari Department Store on the next trading day is expected to be 1,394 with a mean absolute deviation of 22.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1,165, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,351.

Matahari Department Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Matahari Department stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Matahari Department stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. When Matahari Department Store prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Matahari Department Store trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Matahari Department observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Matahari Department

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Matahari Department Store. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 1,398 1,400 1,402 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 1,289 1,291 1,540 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 1,309 1,486 1,663 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Matahari Department

For every potential investor in Matahari, whether a beginner or expert, Matahari Department's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Matahari Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Matahari. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Matahari Department's price trends.

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Risk & Return

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Matahari Department Store Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Matahari Department's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Matahari Department's current price.

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