LATAM Airlines Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| LTM Stock | CLP 13.15 0.11 0.84% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of LATAM Airlines Group on the next trading day is expected to be 13.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.41. LATAM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
LATAM |
LATAM Airlines Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of LATAM Airlines Group on the next trading day is expected to be 13.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LATAM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LATAM Airlines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LATAM Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LATAM Airlines | LATAM Airlines Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
LATAM Airlines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LATAM Airlines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LATAM Airlines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.10 and 15.04, respectively. We have considered LATAM Airlines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LATAM Airlines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LATAM Airlines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8959 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2855 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0232 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.4127 |
Predictive Modules for LATAM Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LATAM Airlines Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for LATAM Airlines
For every potential investor in LATAM, whether a beginner or expert, LATAM Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LATAM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LATAM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LATAM Airlines' price trends.LATAM Airlines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LATAM Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LATAM Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LATAM Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LATAM Airlines Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LATAM Airlines' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LATAM Airlines' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LATAM Airlines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LATAM Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LATAM Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LATAM Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LATAM Airlines Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
LATAM Airlines Risk Indicators
The analysis of LATAM Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LATAM Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting latam stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Variance | 2.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.15) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with LATAM Airlines
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if LATAM Airlines position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in LATAM Airlines will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with LATAM Stock
| 0.88 | AFPCAPITAL | AFP Capital SA | PairCorr |
Moving against LATAM Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to LATAM Airlines could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace LATAM Airlines when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back LATAM Airlines - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling LATAM Airlines Group to buy it.
The correlation of LATAM Airlines is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as LATAM Airlines moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if LATAM Airlines Group moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for LATAM Airlines can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in LATAM Stock
When determining whether LATAM Airlines Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze LATAM Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact LATAM Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding LATAM Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LATAM Airlines to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.