Luzerner Kantonalbank Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

LUKN Stock  CHF 103.40  0.60  0.58%   
Luzerner Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength indicator of Luzerner Kantonalbank's stock price is slightly above 63. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Luzerner, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Luzerner Kantonalbank's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Luzerner Kantonalbank and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Luzerner Kantonalbank's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Luzerner Kantonalbank AG, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Luzerner Kantonalbank's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.018
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.0999
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.2942
Wall Street Target Price
108
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
Using Luzerner Kantonalbank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Luzerner Kantonalbank AG from the perspective of Luzerner Kantonalbank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Luzerner Kantonalbank AG on the next trading day is expected to be 103.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.79.

Luzerner Kantonalbank after-hype prediction price

    
  CHF 103.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Luzerner Kantonalbank to cross-verify your projections.

Luzerner Kantonalbank Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Luzerner price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Luzerner using various technical indicators. When you analyze Luzerner charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Luzerner Kantonalbank price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Luzerner Kantonalbank Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Luzerner Kantonalbank AG on the next trading day is expected to be 103.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.87, mean absolute percentage error of 1.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Luzerner Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Luzerner Kantonalbank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Luzerner Kantonalbank Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Luzerner Kantonalbank  Luzerner Kantonalbank Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Luzerner Kantonalbank Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Luzerner Kantonalbank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Luzerner Kantonalbank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 102.36 and 104.44, respectively. We have considered Luzerner Kantonalbank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
103.40
102.36
Downside
103.40
Expected Value
104.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Luzerner Kantonalbank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Luzerner Kantonalbank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.3478
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8676
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0092
SAESum of the absolute errors53.7913
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Luzerner Kantonalbank AG historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Luzerner Kantonalbank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Luzerner Kantonalbank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.36103.40104.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
97.7898.82113.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
64.61100.57104.17
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.521.521.52
Details

Luzerner Kantonalbank After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Luzerner Kantonalbank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Luzerner Kantonalbank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Luzerner Kantonalbank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Luzerner Kantonalbank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Luzerner Kantonalbank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Luzerner Kantonalbank's historical news coverage. Luzerner Kantonalbank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 102.36 and 104.44, respectively. We have considered Luzerner Kantonalbank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
103.40
102.36
Downside
103.40
After-hype Price
104.44
Upside
Luzerner Kantonalbank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Luzerner Kantonalbank is based on 3 months time horizon.

Luzerner Kantonalbank Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Luzerner Kantonalbank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Luzerner Kantonalbank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Luzerner Kantonalbank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.31 
1.04
  0.03 
  4.28 
10 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
103.40
103.40
0.00 
1,040  
Notes

Luzerner Kantonalbank Hype Timeline

Luzerner Kantonalbank is now traded for 103.40on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 4.28. Luzerner is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.31%. %. The volatility of related hype on Luzerner Kantonalbank is about 7.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 107.68. About 61.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.22. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Luzerner Kantonalbank recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.96. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of April 2026. The firm had 5:1 split on the 25th of April 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Luzerner Kantonalbank to cross-verify your projections.

Luzerner Kantonalbank Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Luzerner Kantonalbank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Luzerner Kantonalbank's future price movements. Getting to know how Luzerner Kantonalbank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Luzerner Kantonalbank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SGKNSt Galler Kantonalbank 3.00 2 per month 0.55  0.23  1.64 (0.96) 5.87 
BEKNBerner Kantonalbank AG(2.50)3 per month 0.40  0.35  2.00 (1.06) 6.62 
CMBNCembra Money Bank(1.15)3 per month 1.48  0.02  2.05 (1.57) 11.14 
ZUGERZuger Kantonalbank 140.00 3 per month 0.00  0.18  1.13 (0.83) 2.75 
LLBNLiechtensteinische Landesbank AG(0.50)2 per month 1.01  0.17  2.29 (1.45) 8.91 
VATNValiant Holding AG(1.60)3 per month 0.67  0.24  1.43 (1.32) 6.06 
VONNVontobel Holding(0.60)3 per month 0.77  0.13  2.64 (1.74) 6.14 
EFGNEFG International AG 0.02 2 per month 1.19  0.06  2.81 (2.21) 9.10 
WKBNBanque Cantonale du 1.00 1 per month 0.00  0.13  1.09 (0.72) 2.58 
BCGEBanque Cantonale de 0.40 3 per month 0.00  0.31  1.95 (1.10) 4.38 

Other Forecasting Options for Luzerner Kantonalbank

For every potential investor in Luzerner, whether a beginner or expert, Luzerner Kantonalbank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Luzerner Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Luzerner. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Luzerner Kantonalbank's price trends.

Luzerner Kantonalbank Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Luzerner Kantonalbank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Luzerner Kantonalbank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Luzerner Kantonalbank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Luzerner Kantonalbank Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Luzerner Kantonalbank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Luzerner Kantonalbank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Luzerner Kantonalbank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Luzerner Kantonalbank AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Luzerner Kantonalbank Risk Indicators

The analysis of Luzerner Kantonalbank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Luzerner Kantonalbank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting luzerner stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Luzerner Kantonalbank

The number of cover stories for Luzerner Kantonalbank depends on current market conditions and Luzerner Kantonalbank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Luzerner Kantonalbank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Luzerner Kantonalbank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Luzerner Kantonalbank Short Properties

Luzerner Kantonalbank's future price predictability will typically decrease when Luzerner Kantonalbank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Luzerner Kantonalbank AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Luzerner Kantonalbank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Luzerner Kantonalbank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding49.6 M
Forward Annual Dividend Rate2.7
Shares Float18.8 M

Additional Tools for Luzerner Stock Analysis

When running Luzerner Kantonalbank's price analysis, check to measure Luzerner Kantonalbank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Luzerner Kantonalbank is operating at the current time. Most of Luzerner Kantonalbank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Luzerner Kantonalbank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Luzerner Kantonalbank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Luzerner Kantonalbank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.