Lumbee Guaranty OTC Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LUMB Stock | USD 14.00 0.00 0.00% |
Lumbee OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lumbee Guaranty stock prices and determine the direction of Lumbee Guaranty Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lumbee Guaranty's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Lumbee Guaranty's otc stock price is about 67. This indicates that the otc stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lumbee, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Lumbee Guaranty based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Lumbee Guaranty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lumbee Guaranty Bank from the perspective of Lumbee Guaranty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lumbee Guaranty Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 14.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.81. Lumbee Guaranty after-hype prediction price | USD 14.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Lumbee |
Lumbee Guaranty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lumbee price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lumbee using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lumbee charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lumbee Guaranty Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lumbee Guaranty Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 14.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lumbee OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lumbee Guaranty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lumbee Guaranty OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lumbee Guaranty | Lumbee Guaranty Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lumbee Guaranty Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lumbee Guaranty's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lumbee Guaranty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.52 and 15.48, respectively. We have considered Lumbee Guaranty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lumbee Guaranty otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lumbee Guaranty otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0331 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0112 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0468 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0035 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.81 |
Predictive Modules for Lumbee Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lumbee Guaranty Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lumbee Guaranty After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lumbee Guaranty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lumbee Guaranty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Lumbee Guaranty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lumbee Guaranty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lumbee Guaranty's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lumbee Guaranty's historical news coverage. Lumbee Guaranty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.53 and 15.47, respectively. We have considered Lumbee Guaranty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lumbee Guaranty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lumbee Guaranty Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lumbee Guaranty OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Lumbee Guaranty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lumbee Guaranty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lumbee Guaranty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.48 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.00 | 14.00 | 0.00 |
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Lumbee Guaranty Hype Timeline
Lumbee Guaranty Bank is now traded for 14.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.23. Lumbee is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lumbee Guaranty is about 56.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.77. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.25. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lumbee Guaranty Bank last dividend was issued on the 8th of December 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lumbee Guaranty to cross-verify your projections.Lumbee Guaranty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lumbee Guaranty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lumbee Guaranty's future price movements. Getting to know how Lumbee Guaranty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lumbee Guaranty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WSSH | West Shore Bank | (27.41) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1.86 | (0.43) | 6.26 | |
| DENI | Denali Bancorporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.71 | (0.01) | 6.14 | (6.46) | 13.79 | |
| STBI | Sturgis Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | (0.02) | 2.07 | (2.03) | 4.92 | |
| CZNL | Citizens National | 1.34 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 7.59 | |
| GVYB | Golden Valley Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1.90 | 0.00 | 9.99 | |
| BAOB | Baraboo Bancorporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.11 | 2.45 | (1.78) | 11.56 | |
| INFT | Infinity Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 0.00 | (0.64) | 10.54 | |
| OSBK | Oconee Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.1 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 5.23 | |
| MBKL | MBT Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.04 | 0.04 | 5.73 | (3.38) | 22.40 | |
| ALBY | Community Capital Bancshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 0.85 | (0.85) | 4.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lumbee Guaranty
For every potential investor in Lumbee, whether a beginner or expert, Lumbee Guaranty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lumbee OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lumbee. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lumbee Guaranty's price trends.Lumbee Guaranty Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lumbee Guaranty otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lumbee Guaranty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lumbee Guaranty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lumbee Guaranty Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lumbee Guaranty otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lumbee Guaranty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lumbee Guaranty otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lumbee Guaranty Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lumbee Guaranty Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lumbee Guaranty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lumbee Guaranty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lumbee otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3929 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Variance | 1.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lumbee Guaranty
The number of cover stories for Lumbee Guaranty depends on current market conditions and Lumbee Guaranty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lumbee Guaranty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lumbee Guaranty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Lumbee OTC Stock
Lumbee Guaranty financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lumbee OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lumbee with respect to the benefits of owning Lumbee Guaranty security.