Mitra Adiperkasa Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

MAPI Stock  IDR 1,300  60.00  4.41%   
Mitra Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Mitra Adiperkasa's share price is approaching 48. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mitra Adiperkasa, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 48

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Mitra Adiperkasa's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Mitra Adiperkasa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk from the perspective of Mitra Adiperkasa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,264 with a mean absolute deviation of 38.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,327.

Mitra Adiperkasa after-hype prediction price

    
  IDR 1300.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mitra Adiperkasa to cross-verify your projections.

Mitra Adiperkasa Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mitra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mitra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mitra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Mitra Adiperkasa price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Mitra Adiperkasa Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 1,264 with a mean absolute deviation of 38.15, mean absolute percentage error of 2,008, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,327.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mitra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mitra Adiperkasa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mitra Adiperkasa Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mitra Adiperkasa  Mitra Adiperkasa Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Mitra Adiperkasa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mitra Adiperkasa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mitra Adiperkasa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,262 and 1,267, respectively. We have considered Mitra Adiperkasa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1,300
1,264
Expected Value
1,267
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mitra Adiperkasa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mitra Adiperkasa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.7156
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation38.149
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0312
SAESum of the absolute errors2327.0862
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Mitra Adiperkasa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1,2981,3001,302
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1,0701,0721,430
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-763.121,3041,407
Details

Mitra Adiperkasa After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Mitra Adiperkasa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mitra Adiperkasa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mitra Adiperkasa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Mitra Adiperkasa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Mitra Adiperkasa's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mitra Adiperkasa's historical news coverage. Mitra Adiperkasa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,298 and 1,302, respectively. We have considered Mitra Adiperkasa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1,300
1,300
After-hype Price
1,302
Upside
Mitra Adiperkasa is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk is based on 3 months time horizon.

Mitra Adiperkasa Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mitra Adiperkasa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mitra Adiperkasa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mitra Adiperkasa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
2.43
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1,300
1,300
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Mitra Adiperkasa Hype Timeline

Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk is now traded for 1,300on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Mitra is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mitra Adiperkasa is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,300. About 19.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Mitra Adiperkasa was now reported as 443.83. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.19. Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk recorded earning per share (EPS) of 122.0. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of May 2019. The firm had 10:1 split on the 4th of June 2018. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mitra Adiperkasa to cross-verify your projections.

Mitra Adiperkasa Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Mitra Adiperkasa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mitra Adiperkasa's future price movements. Getting to know how Mitra Adiperkasa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mitra Adiperkasa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MAPAMAP Aktif Adiperkasa 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 4.03 (3.36) 8.61 
BUKAPT Bukalapak 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.13) 3.07 (4.14) 10.08 
POLUGolden Flower Tbk 0.00 0 per month 6.36 (0) 19.90 (14.98) 34.91 
MDIYPT Daya Intiguna 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.42 (2.87) 16.54 
LPPFMatahari Department Store 0.00 0 per month 0.63  0.08  2.41 (1.36) 6.54 
BUVABukit Uluwatu Villa 0.00 0 per month 7.02  0.08  15.63 (14.78) 35.09 
RALSRamayana Lestari Sentosa 0.00 0 per month 1.15  0.06  3.57 (2.18) 8.01 
SMSMSelamat Sempurna Tbk 0.00 0 per month 1.02 (0.06) 1.67 (2.27) 6.19 
AUTOAstra Otoparts Tbk 0.00 0 per month 2.15 (0.02) 3.03 (4.00) 12.52 
VKTRPT VKTR Teknologi 0.00 0 per month 5.78  0.17  16.50 (14.67) 32.16 

Other Forecasting Options for Mitra Adiperkasa

For every potential investor in Mitra, whether a beginner or expert, Mitra Adiperkasa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mitra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mitra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mitra Adiperkasa's price trends.

Mitra Adiperkasa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mitra Adiperkasa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mitra Adiperkasa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mitra Adiperkasa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mitra Adiperkasa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mitra Adiperkasa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mitra Adiperkasa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mitra Adiperkasa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mitra Adiperkasa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mitra Adiperkasa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mitra Adiperkasa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mitra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mitra Adiperkasa

The number of cover stories for Mitra Adiperkasa depends on current market conditions and Mitra Adiperkasa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mitra Adiperkasa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mitra Adiperkasa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Mitra Adiperkasa Short Properties

Mitra Adiperkasa's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mitra Adiperkasa's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mitra Adiperkasa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mitra Adiperkasa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments3.1 T

Other Information on Investing in Mitra Stock

Mitra Adiperkasa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mitra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mitra with respect to the benefits of owning Mitra Adiperkasa security.