Moleculin Biotech Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MBRX Stock | USD 4.31 0.40 10.23% |
Moleculin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Moleculin Biotech's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (5.28) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.85) | Wall Street Target Price 6.6667 |
Using Moleculin Biotech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Moleculin Biotech from the perspective of Moleculin Biotech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Moleculin Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Moleculin Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 2.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.06.Moleculin Biotech Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Moleculin Biotech's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Moleculin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Moleculin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Moleculin Biotech. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Moleculin Biotech's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Moleculin Biotech.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Moleculin Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 2.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.06. Moleculin Biotech after-hype prediction price | USD 4.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Moleculin Biotech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Moleculin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Moleculin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Moleculin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Moleculin Biotech Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Moleculin Biotech on the next trading day is expected to be 2.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.36, mean absolute percentage error of 2.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 83.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Moleculin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Moleculin Biotech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Moleculin Biotech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Moleculin Biotech | Moleculin Biotech Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Moleculin Biotech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Moleculin Biotech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Moleculin Biotech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 9.14, respectively. We have considered Moleculin Biotech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Moleculin Biotech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Moleculin Biotech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9954 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3617 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.2675 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 83.062 |
Predictive Modules for Moleculin Biotech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Moleculin Biotech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Moleculin Biotech After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Moleculin Biotech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Moleculin Biotech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Moleculin Biotech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Moleculin Biotech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Moleculin Biotech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Moleculin Biotech's historical news coverage. Moleculin Biotech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.22 and 11.30, respectively. We have considered Moleculin Biotech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Moleculin Biotech is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Moleculin Biotech is based on 3 months time horizon.
Moleculin Biotech Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Moleculin Biotech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Moleculin Biotech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Moleculin Biotech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.41 | 6.93 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.31 | 4.37 | 1.39 |
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Moleculin Biotech Hype Timeline
Moleculin Biotech is now traded for 4.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.26. Moleculin is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 1.39%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.41%. The volatility of related hype on Moleculin Biotech is about 3766.3%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.05. Net Loss for the year was (21.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Moleculin Biotech to cross-verify your projections.Moleculin Biotech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Moleculin Biotech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. Getting to know how Moleculin Biotech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Moleculin Biotech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APLM | Apollomics Class A | (0.72) | 2 per month | 6.61 | 0.09 | 17.08 | (12.20) | 44.38 | |
| ATHA | Athira Pharma | (0.54) | 9 per month | 4.10 | 0.05 | 6.70 | (8.06) | 71.83 | |
| ICU | SeaStar Medical Holding | (0.18) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 9.58 | (9.88) | 34.66 | |
| ADAP | Adaptimmune Therapeutics Plc | (0.01) | 6 per month | 15.04 | 0.03 | 22.82 | (18.18) | 168.52 | |
| LNAI | Lunai Bioworks | (0.12) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 12.62 | (8.82) | 55.92 | |
| CTXR | Citius Pharmaceuticals | (0.15) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 10.59 | (9.49) | 38.23 | |
| THAR | Tharimmune | (0.15) | 9 per month | 5.92 | 0.08 | 11.55 | (10.08) | 40.06 | |
| AIMD | Ainos Inc | (0.03) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 12.30 | (10.43) | 38.73 | |
| BLRX | BioLineRx | 0.05 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.20 | (5.26) | 13.04 | |
| LPTX | Leap Therapeutics | 0.01 | 9 per month | 6.90 | 0.14 | 25.00 | (9.43) | 65.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for Moleculin Biotech
For every potential investor in Moleculin, whether a beginner or expert, Moleculin Biotech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Moleculin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Moleculin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Moleculin Biotech's price trends.Moleculin Biotech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Moleculin Biotech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Moleculin Biotech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Moleculin Biotech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Moleculin Biotech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Moleculin Biotech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Moleculin Biotech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Moleculin Biotech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Moleculin Biotech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Moleculin Biotech Risk Indicators
The analysis of Moleculin Biotech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Moleculin Biotech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moleculin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.77 | |||
| Variance | 45.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Moleculin Biotech
The number of cover stories for Moleculin Biotech depends on current market conditions and Moleculin Biotech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Moleculin Biotech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Moleculin Biotech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Moleculin Biotech Short Properties
Moleculin Biotech's future price predictability will typically decrease when Moleculin Biotech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Moleculin Biotech often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Moleculin Biotech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Moleculin Biotech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 137.7 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.3 M |
Additional Tools for Moleculin Stock Analysis
When running Moleculin Biotech's price analysis, check to measure Moleculin Biotech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moleculin Biotech is operating at the current time. Most of Moleculin Biotech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moleculin Biotech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moleculin Biotech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moleculin Biotech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.