Sotherly Hotels Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MCL Stock | EUR 1.78 0.02 1.14% |
Sotherly Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Sotherly Hotels' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the value of rsi of Sotherly Hotels' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Sotherly Hotels hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sotherly Hotels from the perspective of Sotherly Hotels response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sotherly Hotels on the next trading day is expected to be 1.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.80. Sotherly Hotels after-hype prediction price | EUR 1.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sotherly |
Sotherly Hotels Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sotherly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sotherly using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sotherly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sotherly Hotels Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sotherly Hotels on the next trading day is expected to be 1.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sotherly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sotherly Hotels' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sotherly Hotels Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sotherly Hotels | Sotherly Hotels Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Sotherly Hotels Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sotherly Hotels' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sotherly Hotels' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.08 and 3.44, respectively. We have considered Sotherly Hotels' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sotherly Hotels stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sotherly Hotels stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.6728 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0027 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0133 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0075 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.7985 |
Predictive Modules for Sotherly Hotels
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sotherly Hotels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sotherly Hotels After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sotherly Hotels at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sotherly Hotels or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sotherly Hotels, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sotherly Hotels Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sotherly Hotels' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sotherly Hotels' historical news coverage. Sotherly Hotels' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 3.46, respectively. We have considered Sotherly Hotels' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sotherly Hotels is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sotherly Hotels is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sotherly Hotels Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sotherly Hotels is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sotherly Hotels backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sotherly Hotels, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.78 | 1.78 | 0.00 |
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Sotherly Hotels Hype Timeline
Sotherly Hotels is now traded for 1.78on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Sotherly is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Sotherly Hotels is about 1344.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.78. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.16. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Sotherly Hotels last dividend was issued on the 12th of March 2020. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sotherly Hotels to cross-verify your projections.Sotherly Hotels Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sotherly Hotels' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sotherly Hotels' future price movements. Getting to know how Sotherly Hotels' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sotherly Hotels may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 10N | Enter Air SA | 0.1 | 6 per month | 0.48 | 0.17 | 3.44 | (1.69) | 18.84 | |
| MUG | Mitsubishi Gas Chemical | 0.1 | 4 per month | 3.23 | 0.04 | 3.52 | (3.07) | 15.91 | |
| WI2 | Wizz Air Holdings | 0.21 | 9 per month | 2.26 | 0.14 | 7.00 | (4.24) | 16.41 | |
| EAC | Eastman Chemical | 1.28 | 7 per month | 1.68 | 0.13 | 4.00 | (2.75) | 9.55 | |
| SUI | Sekisui Chemical Co | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.72 | (2.14) | 7.85 | |
| AIL | LAir Liquide SA | (2.68) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.45 | (1.44) | 4.58 | |
| 90AA | ALTAIR RES INC | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NWC | Norwegian Air Shuttle | (0.01) | 6 per month | 2.20 | 0.03 | 3.57 | (3.03) | 12.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sotherly Hotels
For every potential investor in Sotherly, whether a beginner or expert, Sotherly Hotels' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sotherly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sotherly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sotherly Hotels' price trends.Sotherly Hotels Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sotherly Hotels stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sotherly Hotels could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sotherly Hotels by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sotherly Hotels Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sotherly Hotels stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sotherly Hotels shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sotherly Hotels stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sotherly Hotels entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.02 |
Sotherly Hotels Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sotherly Hotels' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sotherly Hotels' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sotherly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8129 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.95 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sotherly Hotels
The number of cover stories for Sotherly Hotels depends on current market conditions and Sotherly Hotels' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sotherly Hotels is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sotherly Hotels' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sotherly Hotels Short Properties
Sotherly Hotels' future price predictability will typically decrease when Sotherly Hotels' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sotherly Hotels often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sotherly Hotels' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sotherly Hotels' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.8 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sotherly Hotels to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Sotherly Stock please use our How to Invest in Sotherly Hotels guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.