Microchip Technology Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MCP Stock | EUR 65.43 1.26 1.89% |
Microchip Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Microchip Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 4th of February 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Microchip Technology's share price is at 57. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Microchip Technology, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Wall Street Target Price 181.65 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) |
Using Microchip Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Microchip Technology Incorporated from the perspective of Microchip Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Microchip Technology Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 65.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.89. Microchip Technology after-hype prediction price | EUR 65.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Microchip |
Microchip Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Microchip price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Microchip using various technical indicators. When you analyze Microchip charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Microchip Technology Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Microchip Technology Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 65.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45, mean absolute percentage error of 4.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 86.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microchip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microchip Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Microchip Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Microchip Technology | Microchip Technology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Microchip Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Microchip Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microchip Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 61.69 and 69.17, respectively. We have considered Microchip Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microchip Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microchip Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8129 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3451 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4482 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0261 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 86.895 |
Predictive Modules for Microchip Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microchip Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Microchip Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Microchip Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Microchip Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Microchip Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Microchip Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Microchip Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Microchip Technology's historical news coverage. Microchip Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 61.70 and 69.16, respectively. We have considered Microchip Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Microchip Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microchip Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Microchip Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Microchip Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Microchip Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Microchip Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 3.74 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
65.43 | 65.43 | 0.00 |
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Microchip Technology Hype Timeline
Microchip Technology is now traded for 65.43on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Microchip is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.44%. %. The volatility of related hype on Microchip Technology is about 3490.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 65.48. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.39. Microchip Technology last dividend was issued on the 24th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 13th of October 2021. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microchip Technology to cross-verify your projections.Microchip Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Microchip Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Microchip Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Microchip Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Microchip Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 2NY2 | ePlay Digital | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CK3 | Cars Inc | 0.25 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.00 | (3.81) | 14.54 | |
| 02G | Guangzhou Automobile Group | (0.01) | 4 per month | 2.47 | 0.01 | 5.88 | (5.13) | 22.05 | |
| CUW | COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR | 0.00 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.54 | (3.43) | 8.48 | |
| WD5A | TRAVEL LEISURE DL 01 | 0.49 | 4 per month | 1.43 | 0.05 | 3.52 | (2.71) | 10.76 | |
| GRU | Geely Automobile Holdings | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.60 | (2.59) | 7.61 | |
| GRU | GEELY AUTOMOBILE | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.15 | (2.65) | 6.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Microchip Technology
For every potential investor in Microchip, whether a beginner or expert, Microchip Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microchip Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microchip. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microchip Technology's price trends.Microchip Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microchip Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microchip Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microchip Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Microchip Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microchip Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microchip Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microchip Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microchip Technology Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0779 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (21.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 65.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 65.45 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 7.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.66) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.26) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 57.96 |
Microchip Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Microchip Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microchip Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microchip stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.61 | |||
| Variance | 13.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Microchip Technology
The number of cover stories for Microchip Technology depends on current market conditions and Microchip Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Microchip Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Microchip Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microchip Technology to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Microchip Stock please use our How to Invest in Microchip Technology guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.