MFS Charter Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MCR Stock | USD 6.27 0.01 0.16% |
MFS Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although MFS Charter's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MFS Charter's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MFS Charter fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of MFS Charter's share price is at 54. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MFS Charter, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.01) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.21 | Wall Street Target Price 3.67 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.02 |
Using MFS Charter hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MFS Charter Income from the perspective of MFS Charter response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MFS Charter Income on the next trading day is expected to be 6.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.12. MFS Charter after-hype prediction price | USD 6.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Charter to cross-verify your projections. MFS Charter Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MFS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MFS using various technical indicators. When you analyze MFS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MFS Charter Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MFS Charter Income on the next trading day is expected to be 6.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0005, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MFS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MFS Charter's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MFS Charter Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MFS Charter | MFS Charter Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MFS Charter Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MFS Charter's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MFS Charter's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.89 and 6.65, respectively. We have considered MFS Charter's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MFS Charter stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MFS Charter stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.7662 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0015 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0186 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.003 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.116 |
Predictive Modules for MFS Charter
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MFS Charter Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MFS Charter's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MFS Charter After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MFS Charter at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MFS Charter or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MFS Charter, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MFS Charter Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MFS Charter's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MFS Charter's historical news coverage. MFS Charter's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.89 and 6.65, respectively. We have considered MFS Charter's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MFS Charter is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MFS Charter Income is based on 3 months time horizon.
MFS Charter Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MFS Charter is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MFS Charter backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MFS Charter, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.27 | 6.27 | 0.00 |
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MFS Charter Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January MFS Charter Income is traded for 6.27. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. MFS is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on MFS Charter is about 500.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.27. About 41.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.93. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MFS Charter Income last dividend was issued on the 20th of January 2026. The entity had 1:94 split on the July 30, 2013. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Charter to cross-verify your projections.MFS Charter Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MFS Charter's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MFS Charter's future price movements. Getting to know how MFS Charter's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MFS Charter may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MMT | MFS Multimarket Income | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.37 | (0.12) | 0.66 | (0.66) | 2.40 | |
| BKT | BlackRock Income Closed | (0.12) | 3 per month | 0.31 | (0.14) | 0.65 | (0.64) | 1.66 | |
| SCD | Lmp Capital And | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.71 | 0.01 | 1.26 | (1.24) | 2.95 | |
| MIN | MFS Intermediate Income | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.45 | (0.14) | 0.78 | (0.77) | 3.08 | |
| FTF | Franklin Templeton Limited | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.36 | (0.08) | 0.66 | (0.67) | 1.68 | |
| PMM | Putnam Managed Municipal | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.45 | (0.1) | 1.13 | (0.97) | 3.57 | |
| FCT | First Trust Senior | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.85 | (0.74) | 6.13 | |
| NCZ | Allianzgi Convertible Income | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.80 | 0.03 | 1.65 | (1.49) | 4.66 | |
| OIA | Invesco Municipal Income | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.42 | (0.01) | 0.84 | (0.68) | 3.84 | |
| AINTX | Ariel International Fund | (0.54) | 5 per month | 0.32 | 0.12 | 1.34 | (1.15) | 15.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for MFS Charter
For every potential investor in MFS, whether a beginner or expert, MFS Charter's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MFS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MFS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MFS Charter's price trends.MFS Charter Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MFS Charter stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MFS Charter could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MFS Charter by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MFS Charter Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MFS Charter stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MFS Charter shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MFS Charter stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MFS Charter Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MFS Charter Risk Indicators
The analysis of MFS Charter's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MFS Charter's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mfs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3249 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.359 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4106 | |||
| Variance | 0.1686 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2003 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1289 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MFS Charter
The number of cover stories for MFS Charter depends on current market conditions and MFS Charter's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MFS Charter is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MFS Charter's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MFS Charter Short Properties
MFS Charter's future price predictability will typically decrease when MFS Charter's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MFS Charter Income often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MFS Charter's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MFS Charter's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 27 K |
Additional Tools for MFS Stock Analysis
When running MFS Charter's price analysis, check to measure MFS Charter's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MFS Charter is operating at the current time. Most of MFS Charter's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MFS Charter's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MFS Charter's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MFS Charter to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.