Medtronic PLC Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| MDT Stock | USD 100.95 0.28 0.28% |
Medtronic Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Medtronic PLC's share price is at 59. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Medtronic PLC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.081 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.6551 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.1153 | Wall Street Target Price 110.2 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 1.3141 |
Using Medtronic PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Medtronic PLC from the perspective of Medtronic PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Medtronic PLC using Medtronic PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Medtronic using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Medtronic PLC's stock price.
Medtronic PLC Short Interest
An investor who is long Medtronic PLC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Medtronic PLC and may potentially protect profits, hedge Medtronic PLC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 92.0268 | Short Percent 0.0113 | Short Ratio 2.49 | Shares Short Prior Month 19 M | 50 Day MA 99.2056 |
Medtronic Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Medtronic PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 100.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.78.Medtronic PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Medtronic PLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Medtronic. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Medtronic can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Medtronic PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Medtronic PLC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Medtronic PLC.
Medtronic PLC Implied Volatility | 0.22 |
Medtronic PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Medtronic PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Medtronic PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Medtronic PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when Medtronic PLC's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Medtronic PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 100.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.78. Medtronic PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 101.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Medtronic contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Medtronic PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0138% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Medtronic PLC trading at USD 100.95, that is roughly USD 0.0139 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Medtronic PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Medtronic PLC options at the current volatility level of 0.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Medtronic Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Medtronic PLC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Medtronic PLC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Medtronic PLC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Medtronic PLC's open interest, investors have to compare it to Medtronic PLC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Medtronic PLC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Medtronic. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Medtronic PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Medtronic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Medtronic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Medtronic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Medtronic PLC Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Medtronic PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 100.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.10, mean absolute percentage error of 2.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 64.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medtronic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medtronic PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Medtronic PLC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Medtronic PLC | Medtronic PLC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Medtronic PLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Medtronic PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medtronic PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 99.53 and 102.09, respectively. We have considered Medtronic PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medtronic PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medtronic PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2192 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2618 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0981 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0111 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 64.785 |
Predictive Modules for Medtronic PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medtronic PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Medtronic PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Medtronic PLC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Medtronic PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Medtronic PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Medtronic PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Medtronic PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Medtronic PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Medtronic PLC's historical news coverage. Medtronic PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 100.09 and 102.65, respectively. We have considered Medtronic PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Medtronic PLC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Medtronic PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Medtronic PLC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Medtronic PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Medtronic PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Medtronic PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.28 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
100.95 | 101.37 | 0.42 |
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Medtronic PLC Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Medtronic PLC is traded for 100.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.27. Medtronic is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 101.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 54.7%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.42%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Medtronic PLC is about 85.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 101.22. The company reported the last year's revenue of 33.54 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 4.69 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 22.79 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Medtronic PLC to cross-verify your projections.Medtronic PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Medtronic PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Medtronic PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Medtronic PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Medtronic PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SYK | Stryker | 6.36 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.16 | (2.03) | 6.72 | |
| HCA | HCA Holdings | 4.59 | 10 per month | 1.49 | 0.04 | 2.91 | (2.71) | 8.70 | |
| BSX | Boston Scientific Corp | 2.99 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.42 | (2.23) | 7.91 | |
| MCK | McKesson | (1.56) | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0 | 2.19 | (2.22) | 5.78 | |
| VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals | 6.67 | 9 per month | 1.20 | 0.06 | 3.37 | (2.36) | 9.91 | |
| SNY | Sanofi ADR | (0.34) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.01 | (2.16) | 7.20 | |
| EW | Edwards Lifesciences Corp | (0.15) | 10 per month | 1.02 | 0.06 | 2.33 | (1.81) | 8.69 | |
| BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb | (0.30) | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.14 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 11.16 | |
| GSK | GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR | (0.58) | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.07 | 2.41 | (2.17) | 8.39 | |
| CVS | CVS Health Corp | (2.69) | 9 per month | 1.68 | (0.02) | 2.35 | (1.95) | 6.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for Medtronic PLC
For every potential investor in Medtronic, whether a beginner or expert, Medtronic PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medtronic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medtronic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medtronic PLC's price trends.Medtronic PLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medtronic PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medtronic PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medtronic PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Medtronic PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medtronic PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medtronic PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medtronic PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Medtronic PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Medtronic PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of Medtronic PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medtronic PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medtronic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9303 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.844 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8757 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7123 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Medtronic PLC
The number of cover stories for Medtronic PLC depends on current market conditions and Medtronic PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Medtronic PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Medtronic PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Medtronic PLC Short Properties
Medtronic PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when Medtronic PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Medtronic PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Medtronic PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Medtronic PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9 B |
Additional Tools for Medtronic Stock Analysis
When running Medtronic PLC's price analysis, check to measure Medtronic PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Medtronic PLC is operating at the current time. Most of Medtronic PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Medtronic PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Medtronic PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Medtronic PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.