MercadoLibre Stock Forward View
| MELI Stock | USD 2,148 70.35 3.17% |
MercadoLibre Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of MercadoLibre's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 2nd of February 2026, the value of RSI of MercadoLibre's share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MercadoLibre, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.061 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 13.1503 | EPS Estimate Current Year 39.9605 | EPS Estimate Next Year 59.6053 | Wall Street Target Price 2.8 K |
Using MercadoLibre hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MercadoLibre from the perspective of MercadoLibre response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MercadoLibre using MercadoLibre's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MercadoLibre using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MercadoLibre's stock price.
MercadoLibre Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in MercadoLibre's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards MercadoLibre. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of MercadoLibre stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 2.3 K | Short Percent 0.0199 | Short Ratio 2.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 911 K | 50 Day MA 2.1 K |
MercadoLibre Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MercadoLibre on the next trading day is expected to be 2,132 with a mean absolute deviation of 49.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,004.MercadoLibre Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MercadoLibre's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MercadoLibre. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MercadoLibre can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MercadoLibre. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MercadoLibre's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MercadoLibre.
MercadoLibre Implied Volatility | 0.43 |
MercadoLibre's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MercadoLibre stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MercadoLibre's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MercadoLibre stock will not fluctuate a lot when MercadoLibre's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MercadoLibre on the next trading day is expected to be 2,132 with a mean absolute deviation of 49.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,004. MercadoLibre after-hype prediction price | USD 2147.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MercadoLibre | Build AI portfolio with MercadoLibre Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MercadoLibre contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MercadoLibre will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0269% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With MercadoLibre trading at USD 2147.79, that is roughly USD 0.58 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MercadoLibre's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MercadoLibre options at the current volatility level of 0.43%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 MercadoLibre Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MercadoLibre's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MercadoLibre's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MercadoLibre stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MercadoLibre's open interest, investors have to compare it to MercadoLibre's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MercadoLibre is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MercadoLibre. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MercadoLibre Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MercadoLibre price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MercadoLibre using various technical indicators. When you analyze MercadoLibre charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MercadoLibre Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the MercadoLibre's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2005-12-31 | Previous Quarter 3 B | Current Value 2.6 B | Quarterly Volatility 915.6 M |
MercadoLibre Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MercadoLibre on the next trading day is expected to be 2,132 with a mean absolute deviation of 49.24, mean absolute percentage error of 3,749, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,004.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MercadoLibre Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MercadoLibre's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MercadoLibre Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MercadoLibre | MercadoLibre Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MercadoLibre Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MercadoLibre's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MercadoLibre's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,129 and 2,135, respectively. We have considered MercadoLibre's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MercadoLibre stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MercadoLibre stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.3397 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 49.2448 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0236 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3003.9342 |
Predictive Modules for MercadoLibre
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MercadoLibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MercadoLibre After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MercadoLibre at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MercadoLibre or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MercadoLibre, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MercadoLibre Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MercadoLibre's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MercadoLibre's historical news coverage. MercadoLibre's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2,145 and 2,150, respectively. We have considered MercadoLibre's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MercadoLibre is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MercadoLibre is based on 3 months time horizon.
MercadoLibre Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MercadoLibre is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MercadoLibre backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MercadoLibre, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.64 | 0.01 | 1.16 | 14 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2,148 | 2,148 | 0.00 |
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MercadoLibre Hype Timeline
MercadoLibre is now traded for 2,148. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.16. MercadoLibre is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on MercadoLibre is about 18.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2,149. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.09. MercadoLibre recorded earning per share (EPS) of 39.73. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of December 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MercadoLibre to cross-verify your projections.MercadoLibre Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MercadoLibre's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MercadoLibre's future price movements. Getting to know how MercadoLibre's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MercadoLibre may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SE | Sea | (2.58) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.48 | (4.28) | 12.22 | |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | (0.30) | 22 per month | 4.66 | 0.05 | 6.78 | (6.31) | 26.23 | |
| LOW | Lowes Companies | (3.78) | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.07 | 3.71 | (2.36) | 7.59 | |
| SBUX | Starbucks | 0.52 | 8 per month | 1.57 | 0.03 | 3.35 | (2.53) | 8.04 | |
| NKE | Nike Inc | (0.21) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.87 | (3.07) | 14.43 | |
| TJX | The TJX Companies | 153.88 | 27 per month | 0.83 | 0.03 | 1.98 | (1.63) | 4.80 | |
| PDD | PDD Holdings | (2.50) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.19 | (3.98) | 9.20 | |
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (0.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.43 | (2.77) | 7.11 | |
| EBAY | eBay Inc | 0.39 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.63 | (3.25) | 17.48 | |
| CPNG | Coupang LLC | (0.45) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 2.66 | (5.07) | 11.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for MercadoLibre
For every potential investor in MercadoLibre, whether a beginner or expert, MercadoLibre's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MercadoLibre Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MercadoLibre. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MercadoLibre's price trends.MercadoLibre Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MercadoLibre stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MercadoLibre could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MercadoLibre by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MercadoLibre Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MercadoLibre stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MercadoLibre shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MercadoLibre stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MercadoLibre entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0439 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.72) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2177.84 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2167.82 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 97.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (65.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (70.35) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.81 |
MercadoLibre Risk Indicators
The analysis of MercadoLibre's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MercadoLibre's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mercadolibre stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Variance | 6.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MercadoLibre
The number of cover stories for MercadoLibre depends on current market conditions and MercadoLibre's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MercadoLibre is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MercadoLibre's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MercadoLibre Short Properties
MercadoLibre's future price predictability will typically decrease when MercadoLibre's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MercadoLibre often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MercadoLibre's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MercadoLibre's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MercadoLibre to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is there potential for Broadline Retail market expansion? Will MercadoLibre introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MercadoLibre. Expected growth trajectory for MercadoLibre significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about MercadoLibre listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.061 | Earnings Share 39.73 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.395 | Return On Assets |
The market value of MercadoLibre is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MercadoLibre that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MercadoLibre's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MercadoLibre's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because MercadoLibre's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MercadoLibre's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that MercadoLibre's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether MercadoLibre represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, MercadoLibre's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.