MercadoLibre Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MELI Stock | USD 2,163 24.43 1.12% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MercadoLibre on the next trading day is expected to be 2,211 with a mean absolute deviation of 62.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,876. MercadoLibre Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MercadoLibre's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 8th of January 2026 the value of rsi of MercadoLibre's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.061 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 13.1503 | EPS Estimate Current Year 40.0281 | EPS Estimate Next Year 59.5458 | Wall Street Target Price 2.8 K |
Using MercadoLibre hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MercadoLibre from the perspective of MercadoLibre response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MercadoLibre using MercadoLibre's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MercadoLibre using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MercadoLibre's stock price.
MercadoLibre Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in MercadoLibre's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards MercadoLibre. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of MercadoLibre stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 2.3 K | Short Percent 0.0158 | Short Ratio 1.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 703.3 K | 50 Day MA 2.1 K |
MercadoLibre Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MercadoLibre's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MercadoLibre. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MercadoLibre can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MercadoLibre. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MercadoLibre's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MercadoLibre.
MercadoLibre Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
MercadoLibre's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MercadoLibre stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MercadoLibre's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MercadoLibre stock will not fluctuate a lot when MercadoLibre's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MercadoLibre on the next trading day is expected to be 2,211 with a mean absolute deviation of 62.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,876. MercadoLibre after-hype prediction price | USD 2162.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MercadoLibre | Build AI portfolio with MercadoLibre Stock |
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 MercadoLibre Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MercadoLibre's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MercadoLibre's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MercadoLibre stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MercadoLibre's open interest, investors have to compare it to MercadoLibre's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MercadoLibre is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MercadoLibre. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MercadoLibre Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MercadoLibre price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MercadoLibre using various technical indicators. When you analyze MercadoLibre charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MercadoLibre Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the MercadoLibre's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2005-12-31 | Previous Quarter 3 B | Current Value 2.6 B | Quarterly Volatility 915.6 M |
MercadoLibre Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MercadoLibre on the next trading day is expected to be 2,211 with a mean absolute deviation of 62.52, mean absolute percentage error of 5,747, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,876.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MercadoLibre Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MercadoLibre's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MercadoLibre Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MercadoLibre | MercadoLibre Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MercadoLibre Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MercadoLibre's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MercadoLibre's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,208 and 2,214, respectively. We have considered MercadoLibre's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MercadoLibre stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MercadoLibre stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 128.6048 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 62.5191 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0296 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3876.1872 |
Predictive Modules for MercadoLibre
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MercadoLibre. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for MercadoLibre
For every potential investor in MercadoLibre, whether a beginner or expert, MercadoLibre's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MercadoLibre Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MercadoLibre. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MercadoLibre's price trends.MercadoLibre Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MercadoLibre stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MercadoLibre could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MercadoLibre by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MercadoLibre Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MercadoLibre's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MercadoLibre's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MercadoLibre Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MercadoLibre stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MercadoLibre shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MercadoLibre stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MercadoLibre entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10224.5 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.42) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2159.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2160.37 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 2.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (8.85) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (24.43) |
MercadoLibre Risk Indicators
The analysis of MercadoLibre's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MercadoLibre's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mercadolibre stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Variance | 7.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.99 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether MercadoLibre offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of MercadoLibre's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mercadolibre Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mercadolibre Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MercadoLibre to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in MercadoLibre Stock please use our How to Invest in MercadoLibre guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Broadline Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MercadoLibre. If investors know MercadoLibre will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MercadoLibre listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.061 | Earnings Share 40.87 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.395 | Return On Assets |
The market value of MercadoLibre is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MercadoLibre that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MercadoLibre's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MercadoLibre's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MercadoLibre's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MercadoLibre's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MercadoLibre's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MercadoLibre is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MercadoLibre's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.