International Advantage Mutual Fund Forward View

MFAPX Fund  USD 27.34  0.13  0.47%   
International Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of International Advantage's share price is at 50. This indicates that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling International Advantage, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 50

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of International Advantage's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with International Advantage Portfolio, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using International Advantage hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of International Advantage Portfolio from the perspective of International Advantage response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of International Advantage Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 27.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.67.

International Advantage after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 27.34  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Advantage to cross-verify your projections.

International Advantage Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine International price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for International using various technical indicators. When you analyze International charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for International Advantage is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of International Advantage Portfolio value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

International Advantage Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of International Advantage Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 27.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict International Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that International Advantage's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

International Advantage Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest International Advantage  International Advantage Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

International Advantage Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting International Advantage's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. International Advantage's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.40 and 28.29, respectively. We have considered International Advantage's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.34
27.34
Expected Value
28.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of International Advantage mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent International Advantage mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7118
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2405
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0089
SAESum of the absolute errors14.6682
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of International Advantage Portfolio. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict International Advantage. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for International Advantage

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Advantage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.3927.3428.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
26.2327.1828.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
26.7627.3527.93
Details

International Advantage After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of International Advantage at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in International Advantage or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of International Advantage, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

International Advantage Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting International Advantage's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on International Advantage's historical news coverage. International Advantage's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.39 and 28.29, respectively. We have considered International Advantage's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
27.34
27.34
After-hype Price
28.29
Upside
International Advantage is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of International Advantage is based on 3 months time horizon.

International Advantage Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as International Advantage is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading International Advantage backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with International Advantage, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
0.95
  0.38 
  0.07 
1 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
27.34
27.34
0.00 
2.50  
Notes

International Advantage Hype Timeline

International Advantage is now traded for 27.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. International is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 2.5%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on International Advantage is about 12.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.41. The company last dividend was issued on the 16th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of International Advantage to cross-verify your projections.

International Advantage Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to International Advantage's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict International Advantage's future price movements. Getting to know how International Advantage's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how International Advantage may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MFAIXInternational Advantage Portfolio 0.04 1 per month 1.05 (0.06) 1.27 (1.73) 3.88 
ALVIXLarge Pany Value 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.15  1.32 (1.00) 12.07 
PSPAXStocksplus Fund A 0.00 0 per month 0.29  0.15  1.53 (1.27) 15.76 
ETAGXEventide Gilead 28.73 4 per month 0.76  0.14  1.69 (1.72) 16.45 
GSHIXGoldman Sachs High 0.00 1 per month 0.00 (0.22) 0.36 (0.18) 1.06 
FSRPXRetailing Portfolio Retailing 0.11 1 per month 0.84  0.03  2.09 (1.41) 4.91 
GERIXGoldman Sachs Emerging 0.00 0 per month 0.44  0.17  1.36 (1.20) 3.41 
FSAGXGold Portfolio Gold(0.15)2 per month 1.73  0.24  4.53 (4.22) 9.74 
CFSIXTouchstone Sands Capital 45.12 2 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.84 (2.73) 5.44 
PELAXPimco Emerging Local 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.13  0.49 (0.32) 0.97 

Other Forecasting Options for International Advantage

For every potential investor in International, whether a beginner or expert, International Advantage's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. International Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in International. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying International Advantage's price trends.

International Advantage Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with International Advantage mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of International Advantage could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing International Advantage by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

International Advantage Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how International Advantage mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading International Advantage shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying International Advantage mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify International Advantage Portfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

International Advantage Risk Indicators

The analysis of International Advantage's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in International Advantage's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting international mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for International Advantage

The number of cover stories for International Advantage depends on current market conditions and International Advantage's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that International Advantage is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about International Advantage's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in International Mutual Fund

International Advantage financial ratios help investors to determine whether International Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in International with respect to the benefits of owning International Advantage security.
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