Matco Foods Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

MFL Stock   51.29  1.20  2.40%   
Matco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Matco Foods' share price is approaching 36. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Matco Foods, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 36

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Matco Foods' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Matco Foods and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Matco Foods' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Matco Foods, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Matco Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Matco Foods from the perspective of Matco Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Matco Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 56.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 190.71.

Matco Foods after-hype prediction price

    
  PKR 51.29  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Matco Foods to cross-verify your projections.

Matco Foods Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Matco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Matco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Matco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Matco Foods price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Matco Foods Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Matco Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 56.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.08, mean absolute percentage error of 16.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 190.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Matco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Matco Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Matco Foods Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Matco Foods  Matco Foods Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Matco Foods Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Matco Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Matco Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.68 and 59.89, respectively. We have considered Matco Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
51.29
56.29
Expected Value
59.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Matco Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Matco Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.7596
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.076
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0468
SAESum of the absolute errors190.7126
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Matco Foods historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Matco Foods

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Matco Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47.6951.2954.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.2548.8552.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-100.0254.7262.45
Details

Matco Foods After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Matco Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Matco Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Matco Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Matco Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Matco Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Matco Foods' historical news coverage. Matco Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.69 and 54.89, respectively. We have considered Matco Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
51.29
51.29
After-hype Price
54.89
Upside
Matco Foods is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Matco Foods is based on 3 months time horizon.

Matco Foods Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Matco Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Matco Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Matco Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.51 
3.60
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
51.29
51.29
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Matco Foods Hype Timeline

Matco Foods is now traded for 51.29on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Matco is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.51%. %. The volatility of related hype on Matco Foods is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.29. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Matco Foods to cross-verify your projections.

Matco Foods Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Matco Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Matco Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how Matco Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Matco Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Matco Foods

For every potential investor in Matco, whether a beginner or expert, Matco Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Matco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Matco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Matco Foods' price trends.

Matco Foods Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Matco Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Matco Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Matco Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Matco Foods Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Matco Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Matco Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Matco Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Matco Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Matco Foods Risk Indicators

The analysis of Matco Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Matco Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting matco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Matco Foods

The number of cover stories for Matco Foods depends on current market conditions and Matco Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Matco Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Matco Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Matco Stock Analysis

When running Matco Foods' price analysis, check to measure Matco Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Matco Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Matco Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Matco Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Matco Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Matco Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.