MFS Municipal Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MFM Stock | USD 5.53 0.01 0.18% |
MFS Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although MFS Municipal's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of MFS Municipal's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of MFS Municipal fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of MFS Municipal's share price is at 59. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MFS Municipal, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.15) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.014 |
Using MFS Municipal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MFS Municipal Income from the perspective of MFS Municipal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of MFS Municipal Income on the next trading day is expected to be 5.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.34. MFS Municipal after-hype prediction price | USD 5.53 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Municipal to cross-verify your projections. MFS Municipal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MFS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MFS using various technical indicators. When you analyze MFS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MFS Municipal Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of MFS Municipal Income on the next trading day is expected to be 5.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MFS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MFS Municipal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MFS Municipal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MFS Municipal | MFS Municipal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MFS Municipal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MFS Municipal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MFS Municipal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.83 and 6.10, respectively. We have considered MFS Municipal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MFS Municipal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MFS Municipal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.8492 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0384 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0071 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.3424 |
Predictive Modules for MFS Municipal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MFS Municipal Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MFS Municipal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MFS Municipal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MFS Municipal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MFS Municipal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MFS Municipal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MFS Municipal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MFS Municipal's historical news coverage. MFS Municipal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.90 and 6.16, respectively. We have considered MFS Municipal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MFS Municipal is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MFS Municipal Income is based on 3 months time horizon.
MFS Municipal Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MFS Municipal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MFS Municipal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MFS Municipal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.53 | 5.53 | 0.00 |
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MFS Municipal Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February MFS Municipal Income is traded for 5.53. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. MFS is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on MFS Municipal is about 401.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.54. About 42.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.92. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MFS Municipal Income last dividend was issued on the 20th of January 2026. The entity had 1:2 split on the 22nd of January 2018. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Municipal to cross-verify your projections.MFS Municipal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MFS Municipal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MFS Municipal's future price movements. Getting to know how MFS Municipal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MFS Municipal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ETX | Eaton Vance Municipal | 0.10 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.00 | (1.52) | 4.75 | |
| HEIFX | Hennessy Equity And | 1.41 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.86 | (0.70) | 14.21 | |
| PMM | Putnam Managed Municipal | 0.06 | 8 per month | 0.43 | (0) | 1.14 | (0.97) | 3.57 | |
| MCR | MFS Charter Income | (0.02) | 7 per month | 0.33 | (0.08) | 0.64 | (0.48) | 1.76 | |
| SDVSX | Sit Dividend Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.40 | 0.12 | 1.01 | (1.06) | 11.34 | |
| SILVX | Summit Global Investments | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.45 | 0.09 | 1.15 | (0.83) | 2.82 | |
| SDVGX | Sit Dividend Growth | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.42 | 0.12 | 1.01 | (1.12) | 11.18 | |
| SGAPX | American Beacon Sga | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.73 | 0.05 | 1.19 | (1.54) | 17.76 | |
| MQT | Blackrock Muniyield Quality | (0.04) | 2 per month | 0.39 | 0 | 0.92 | (0.59) | 2.49 | |
| VPV | Invesco Pennsylvania Value | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.32 | 0.02 | 0.97 | (0.65) | 2.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for MFS Municipal
For every potential investor in MFS, whether a beginner or expert, MFS Municipal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MFS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MFS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MFS Municipal's price trends.MFS Municipal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MFS Municipal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MFS Municipal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MFS Municipal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MFS Municipal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MFS Municipal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MFS Municipal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MFS Municipal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MFS Municipal Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MFS Municipal Risk Indicators
The analysis of MFS Municipal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MFS Municipal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mfs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4739 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5116 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6295 | |||
| Variance | 0.3963 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3861 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2617 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MFS Municipal
The number of cover stories for MFS Municipal depends on current market conditions and MFS Municipal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MFS Municipal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MFS Municipal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MFS Municipal Short Properties
MFS Municipal's future price predictability will typically decrease when MFS Municipal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MFS Municipal Income often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MFS Municipal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MFS Municipal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.2 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 11.2 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.28 |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MFS Municipal to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could MFS diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MFS Municipal. Expected growth trajectory for MFS significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every MFS Municipal data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.15) | Dividend Share 0.271 | Earnings Share 0.13 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.014 |
Investors evaluate MFS Municipal Income using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating MFS Municipal's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause MFS Municipal's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that MFS Municipal's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether MFS Municipal represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, MFS Municipal's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.