MAGNA INTL Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MGA Stock | EUR 45.45 0.00 0.00% |
MAGNA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MAGNA INTL stock prices and determine the direction of MAGNA INTL's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of MAGNA INTL's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of MAGNA INTL's stock price is about 62. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling MAGNA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MAGNA INTL hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MAGNA INTL from the perspective of MAGNA INTL response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MAGNA INTL on the next trading day is expected to be 45.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.19. MAGNA INTL after-hype prediction price | EUR 45.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
MAGNA |
MAGNA INTL Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MAGNA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MAGNA using various technical indicators. When you analyze MAGNA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MAGNA INTL Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MAGNA INTL on the next trading day is expected to be 45.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MAGNA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MAGNA INTL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MAGNA INTL Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MAGNA INTL | MAGNA INTL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MAGNA INTL Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MAGNA INTL's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MAGNA INTL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.44 and 46.46, respectively. We have considered MAGNA INTL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MAGNA INTL stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MAGNA INTL stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7946 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0873 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2462 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0057 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.7694 |
Predictive Modules for MAGNA INTL
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MAGNA INTL. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.MAGNA INTL After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MAGNA INTL at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MAGNA INTL or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MAGNA INTL, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MAGNA INTL Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MAGNA INTL's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MAGNA INTL's historical news coverage. MAGNA INTL's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.44 and 46.46, respectively. We have considered MAGNA INTL's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MAGNA INTL is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MAGNA INTL is based on 3 months time horizon.
MAGNA INTL Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MAGNA INTL is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MAGNA INTL backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MAGNA INTL, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
45.45 | 45.45 | 0.00 |
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MAGNA INTL Hype Timeline
MAGNA INTL is now traded for 45.45on Berlin Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.16. MAGNA is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on MAGNA INTL is about 146.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.61. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.21. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. MAGNA INTL has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of March 1970. The firm had 2:1 split on the . Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MAGNA INTL to cross-verify your projections.MAGNA INTL Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MAGNA INTL's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MAGNA INTL's future price movements. Getting to know how MAGNA INTL's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MAGNA INTL may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 5NU | CapitaLand Investment Limited | 0.02 | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.14 | 2.20 | (1.72) | 7.51 | |
| DNN | Strategic Investments AS | (0) | 9 per month | 2.49 | 0.06 | 4.71 | (4.12) | 33.60 | |
| AVK1 | AEON STORES | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.52) | 0.00 | (0.91) | 1.75 | |
| CTO | Costco Wholesale Corp | 5.29 | 10 per month | 1.07 | 0.03 | 2.27 | (2.15) | 6.53 | |
| 12P | PennantPark Investment | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.55 | (3.85) | 9.01 | |
| BXU | CDL INVESTMENT | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.63 | (2.56) | 7.83 | |
| HKU | H2O Retailing | 0.20 | 5 per month | 1.68 | 0.08 | 2.42 | (2.59) | 7.63 | |
| JUU | RETAIL FOOD GROUP | (0.03) | 4 per month | 1.15 | 0.04 | 2.41 | (2.35) | 16.27 |
Other Forecasting Options for MAGNA INTL
For every potential investor in MAGNA, whether a beginner or expert, MAGNA INTL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MAGNA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MAGNA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MAGNA INTL's price trends.MAGNA INTL Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MAGNA INTL stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MAGNA INTL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MAGNA INTL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MAGNA INTL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MAGNA INTL stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MAGNA INTL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MAGNA INTL stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MAGNA INTL entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MAGNA INTL Risk Indicators
The analysis of MAGNA INTL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MAGNA INTL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting magna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.603 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1252 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.01 | |||
| Variance | 1.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0157 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MAGNA INTL
The number of cover stories for MAGNA INTL depends on current market conditions and MAGNA INTL's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MAGNA INTL is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MAGNA INTL's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MAGNA INTL Short Properties
MAGNA INTL's future price predictability will typically decrease when MAGNA INTL's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MAGNA INTL often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MAGNA INTL's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MAGNA INTL's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 282.9 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -539 M |
Other Information on Investing in MAGNA Stock
MAGNA INTL financial ratios help investors to determine whether MAGNA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MAGNA with respect to the benefits of owning MAGNA INTL security.