Morgan Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MGHL Stock | USD 2.01 0.00 0.00% |
Morgan Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now The relative strength index (RSI) of Morgan Group's share price is above 80 . This indicates that the pink sheet is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 96
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Morgan Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Morgan Group Holding from the perspective of Morgan Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Morgan Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 2.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.58. Morgan Group after-hype prediction price | USD 2.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Morgan |
Morgan Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Morgan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Morgan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Morgan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Morgan Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Morgan Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 2.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Morgan Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Morgan Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Morgan Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Morgan Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Morgan Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Morgan Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.44, respectively. We have considered Morgan Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Morgan Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Morgan Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.8118 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0093 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0097 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0049 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.58 |
Predictive Modules for Morgan Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morgan Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Morgan Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Morgan Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Morgan Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Morgan Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Morgan Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Morgan Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Morgan Group's historical news coverage. Morgan Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 6.41, respectively. We have considered Morgan Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Morgan Group is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Morgan Group Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Morgan Group Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Morgan Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Morgan Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Morgan Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.62 | 4.43 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.01 | 2.01 | 0.00 |
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Morgan Group Hype Timeline
Morgan Group Holding is now traded for 2.01. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.12. Morgan is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.62%. %. The volatility of related hype on Morgan Group is about 2203.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.89. About 96.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.37. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Morgan Group Holding recorded a loss per share of 2.26. The entity last dividend was issued on the 11th of June 2020. The firm had 1:100 split on the 11th of June 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Morgan Group to cross-verify your projections.Morgan Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Morgan Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Morgan Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Morgan Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Morgan Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JMON | James Monroe Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| GNCNF | Gencan Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PIHG | Plural Industry Holding | (2.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.14 | 3.85 | 0.00 | 258.16 | |
| IDEA | Aeon Ventures | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.65 | 0.04 | 4.58 | (27.83) | 143.02 | |
| TFGL | Nuvonyx | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 67.19 | (7.59) | 303.67 | |
| TMOL | Trimol Group | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BFCH | BitFrontier Capital Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 27.27 | (21.43) | 74.11 | |
| NIHL | New Infinity Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 16.06 | 0.14 | 82.82 | (48.05) | 402.17 | |
| IVFZF | Invictus Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 105.00 | |
| CRVH | Chilco River Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 10.85 | 0.11 | 15.66 | (8.08) | 207.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for Morgan Group
For every potential investor in Morgan, whether a beginner or expert, Morgan Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Morgan Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Morgan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Morgan Group's price trends.Morgan Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Morgan Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Morgan Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Morgan Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Morgan Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Morgan Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Morgan Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Morgan Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Morgan Group Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Morgan Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Morgan Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Morgan Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting morgan pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.26 | |||
| Variance | 18.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Morgan Group
The number of cover stories for Morgan Group depends on current market conditions and Morgan Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Morgan Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Morgan Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Morgan Group Short Properties
Morgan Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Morgan Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Morgan Group Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Morgan Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Morgan Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 600.1 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.9 M |
Other Information on Investing in Morgan Pink Sheet
Morgan Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Morgan Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Morgan with respect to the benefits of owning Morgan Group security.