Megan Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| MGN Stock | 1.90 0.01 0.53% |
Megan Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Megan Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Megan Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Megan Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Megan Holdings' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Megan Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Megan Holdings Limited from the perspective of Megan Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Megan Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Megan Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.50.Megan Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Megan Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Megan. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Megan can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Megan Holdings Limited. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Megan Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Megan Holdings.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Megan Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.50. Megan Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 1.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Megan Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Megan Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Megan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Megan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Megan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Megan Holdings Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Megan Holdings Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Megan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Megan Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Megan Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Megan Holdings | Megan Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Megan Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Megan Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Megan Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 8.47, respectively. We have considered Megan Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Megan Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Megan Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.781 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1557 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.4998 |
Predictive Modules for Megan Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Megan Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Megan Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Megan Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Megan Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Megan Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Megan Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Megan Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Megan Holdings' historical news coverage. Megan Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.09 and 8.58, respectively. We have considered Megan Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Megan Holdings is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Megan Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Megan Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Megan Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Megan Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Megan Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 6.65 | 0.01 | 0.68 | 3 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.90 | 1.87 | 0.54 |
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Megan Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 10th of February Megan Holdings is traded for 1.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.68. Megan is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.87 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.54%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Megan Holdings is about 384.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.58. Reported Net Loss for the year was (2.84 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 0. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Megan Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Megan Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Megan Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Megan Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Megan Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Megan Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSW | Ming Shing Group | (0.03) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 13.27 | (16.45) | 44.28 | |
| WXM | WF International Limited | (0.01) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 11.11 | (15.38) | 30.77 | |
| TRSG | Tungray Technologies Class | 0.1 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.90 | (6.90) | 18.25 | |
| BTOC | Armlogi Holding Corp | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.35 | (7.41) | 20.70 | |
| GLBS | Globus Maritime | 0.01 | 12 per month | 2.81 | 0.12 | 12.58 | (7.01) | 26.30 | |
| BURU | Nuburu Inc | 0.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.70 | (12.00) | 41.67 | |
| SGRP | SPAR Group | 0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.33 | (3.66) | 16.07 | |
| RVSN | Rail Vision Ltd | 17.10 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 11.69 | (8.82) | 112.93 | |
| LIQT | LiqTech International | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 8.11 | (8.87) | 21.94 | |
| PRZO | ParaZero Technologies Ltd | 0.04 | 7 per month | 6.45 | (0.01) | 11.76 | (10.00) | 57.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Megan Holdings
For every potential investor in Megan, whether a beginner or expert, Megan Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Megan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Megan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Megan Holdings' price trends.Megan Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Megan Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Megan Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Megan Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Megan Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Megan Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Megan Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Megan Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Megan Holdings Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 277.94 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0833 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.86 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.045 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Megan Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Megan Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Megan Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting megan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.71 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.8 | |||
| Variance | 46.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 27.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.67) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Megan Holdings
The number of cover stories for Megan Holdings depends on current market conditions and Megan Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Megan Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Megan Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Megan Holdings Short Properties
Megan Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Megan Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Megan Holdings Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Megan Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Megan Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.2 M | |
| Short Term Investments | 22.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Megan Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Will Engineering & Construction sector continue expanding? Could Megan diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Megan Holdings. Expected growth trajectory for Megan significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Megan Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Investors evaluate Megan Holdings using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Megan Holdings' intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Megan Holdings' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Megan Holdings' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Megan Holdings represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Megan Holdings' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.