Mega Fortune Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MGRT Stock   6.20  0.15  2.36%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mega Fortune on the next trading day is expected to be 6.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.42. Mega Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Mega Fortune's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Mega Fortune's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mega Fortune, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Mega Fortune's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
8.922
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.786
Using Mega Fortune hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mega Fortune from the perspective of Mega Fortune response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mega Fortune on the next trading day is expected to be 6.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.42.

Mega Fortune after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 6.37  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mega Fortune to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Mega Stock please use our How to Invest in Mega Fortune guide.

Mega Fortune Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mega price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mega using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mega charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Mega Fortune's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
334.7 K
Current Value
515.5 K
Quarterly Volatility
241.9 K
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Mega Fortune is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mega Fortune value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mega Fortune Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mega Fortune on the next trading day is expected to be 6.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.72, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mega Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mega Fortune's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mega Fortune Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mega FortuneMega Fortune Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mega Fortune Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mega Fortune's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mega Fortune's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 29.04, respectively. We have considered Mega Fortune's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.20
6.75
Expected Value
29.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mega Fortune stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mega Fortune stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.4885
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8616
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1341
SAESum of the absolute errors53.4195
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mega Fortune. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mega Fortune. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mega Fortune

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mega Fortune. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.326.3728.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.305.9528.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
2.986.8110.64
Details

Mega Fortune After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Mega Fortune at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mega Fortune or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mega Fortune, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Mega Fortune Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Mega Fortune's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mega Fortune's historical news coverage. Mega Fortune's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.32 and 28.66, respectively. We have considered Mega Fortune's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.20
6.37
After-hype Price
28.66
Upside
Mega Fortune is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mega Fortune is based on 3 months time horizon.

Mega Fortune Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mega Fortune is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mega Fortune backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mega Fortune, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  2.10 
22.29
  0.17 
  0.03 
2 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.20
6.37
2.74 
27,862  
Notes

Mega Fortune Hype Timeline

Mega Fortune is now traded for 6.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Mega is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 6.37 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 2.74%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 2.1%. The volatility of related hype on Mega Fortune is about 185750.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.23. Mega Fortune currently holds 585.36 K in liabilities. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mega Fortune to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Mega Stock please use our How to Invest in Mega Fortune guide.

Mega Fortune Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Mega Fortune's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mega Fortune's future price movements. Getting to know how Mega Fortune's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mega Fortune may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
GMHSGamehaus Holdings Class(0.01)7 per month 0.00 (0.09) 8.00 (6.52) 23.36 
GAMEGameSquare Holdings 0.08 3 per month 0.00 (0.12) 8.00 (8.62) 21.47 
SOTKSono Tek Corp 0.06 2 per month 2.23 (0.02) 3.50 (4.20) 17.77 
BRAGBragg Gaming Group(0.06)8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 3.81 (5.41) 29.76 
WFCFWhere Food Comes 0.61 10 per month 0.00 (0.14) 2.82 (2.89) 13.24 
MSAIInfrared Cameras Holdings(0.02)8 per month 12.15  0.03  22.58 (19.79) 133.82 
ZENVZenvia Inc(0.21)7 per month 0.00 (0.21) 4.67 (6.43) 15.64 
AMPGAmplitech Group(0.11)9 per month 5.23  0.04  11.28 (8.88) 26.92 
YIBOPlanet Image International(0.01)9 per month 0.00 (0.02) 7.48 (6.77) 43.15 
ALOTAstroNova(0.21)2 per month 2.40 (0.02) 4.76 (3.31) 21.34 

Other Forecasting Options for Mega Fortune

For every potential investor in Mega, whether a beginner or expert, Mega Fortune's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mega Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mega. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mega Fortune's price trends.

Mega Fortune Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mega Fortune stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mega Fortune could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mega Fortune by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mega Fortune Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mega Fortune stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mega Fortune shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mega Fortune stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mega Fortune entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mega Fortune Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mega Fortune's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mega Fortune's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mega stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mega Fortune

The number of cover stories for Mega Fortune depends on current market conditions and Mega Fortune's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mega Fortune is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mega Fortune's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Mega Fortune Short Properties

Mega Fortune's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mega Fortune's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mega Fortune often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mega Fortune's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mega Fortune's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding13.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments371.9 K

Additional Tools for Mega Stock Analysis

When running Mega Fortune's price analysis, check to measure Mega Fortune's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mega Fortune is operating at the current time. Most of Mega Fortune's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mega Fortune's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mega Fortune's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mega Fortune to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.