Meihua International Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MHUA Stock  USD 11.16  3.19  40.03%   
Meihua Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Meihua International stock prices and determine the direction of Meihua International Medical's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Meihua International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Meihua International's share price is at 55. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Meihua International, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 55

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Meihua International's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Meihua International Medical, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Meihua International's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.42)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
Using Meihua International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Meihua International Medical from the perspective of Meihua International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meihua International Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 15.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.96.

Meihua International after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 10.94  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meihua International to cross-verify your projections.

Meihua International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Meihua price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Meihua using various technical indicators. When you analyze Meihua charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Meihua International Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Meihua International's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2019-03-31
Previous Quarter
15.5 M
Current Value
15.5 M
Quarterly Volatility
11.3 M
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Meihua International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Meihua International Medical value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Meihua International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meihua International Medical on the next trading day is expected to be 15.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Meihua Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Meihua International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Meihua International Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Meihua International  Meihua International Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Meihua International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Meihua International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Meihua International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.20 and 29.81, respectively. We have considered Meihua International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.16
15.01
Expected Value
29.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Meihua International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Meihua International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.1392
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1796
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1161
SAESum of the absolute errors71.9576
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Meihua International Medical. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Meihua International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Meihua International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Meihua International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Meihua International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.5510.9425.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.5110.2625.19
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
-1.044.029.08
Details

Meihua International After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Meihua International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Meihua International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Meihua International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Meihua International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Meihua International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Meihua International's historical news coverage. Meihua International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.55 and 25.87, respectively. We have considered Meihua International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.16
10.94
After-hype Price
25.87
Upside
Meihua International is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Meihua International is based on 3 months time horizon.

Meihua International Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Meihua International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Meihua International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Meihua International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
14.80
  0.22 
  0.01 
8 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.16
10.94
1.97 
736.32  
Notes

Meihua International Hype Timeline

Meihua International is now traded for 11.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Meihua is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 10.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.97%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Meihua International is about 16860.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.17. About 29.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.05. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Meihua International recorded earning per share (EPS) of 31.0. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:100 split on the 24th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meihua International to cross-verify your projections.

Meihua International Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Meihua International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Meihua International's future price movements. Getting to know how Meihua International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Meihua International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LUCYInnovative Eyewear 0.03 10 per month 0.00 (0.04) 9.70 (9.83) 57.39 
SSKNSTRATA Skin Sciences 0.12 10 per month 0.00 (0.1) 7.56 (7.30) 25.41 
YCBDcbdMD Inc 0.04 7 per month 7.57  0.03  19.17 (14.07) 112.24 
POAIPOAI Old 0.04 7 per month 0.00 (0.08) 15.02 (19.12) 77.03 
SBFMSunshine Biopharma(0.06)7 per month 0.00 (0.20) 4.73 (5.65) 13.93 
BFRIBiofrontera 0.02 9 per month 4.74  0.01  9.59 (7.59) 32.71 
ADILAdial Pharmaceuticals(0.01)8 per month 0.00 (0.18) 5.56 (6.25) 16.67 
CHEKCheck Cap(0.03)12 per month 6.07  0.12  17.16 (10.37) 198.26 
PAVMPAVmed Inc 0.64 9 per month 7.61  0.0009  10.86 (10.69) 111.24 

Other Forecasting Options for Meihua International

For every potential investor in Meihua, whether a beginner or expert, Meihua International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Meihua Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Meihua. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Meihua International's price trends.

Meihua International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Meihua International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Meihua International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Meihua International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Meihua International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Meihua International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Meihua International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Meihua International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Meihua International Medical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Meihua International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Meihua International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Meihua International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting meihua stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Meihua International

The number of cover stories for Meihua International depends on current market conditions and Meihua International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Meihua International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Meihua International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Meihua International Short Properties

Meihua International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Meihua International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Meihua International Medical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Meihua International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Meihua International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding273.7 K
Cash And Short Term Investments16 M
When determining whether Meihua International is a strong investment it is important to analyze Meihua International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Meihua International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Meihua Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Meihua International to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Meihua International. If investors know Meihua will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Meihua International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.42)
Earnings Share
31
Revenue Per Share
290.778
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.16)
Return On Assets
0.0394
The market value of Meihua International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Meihua that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Meihua International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Meihua International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Meihua International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Meihua International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Meihua International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Meihua International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Meihua International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.