Bank Millennium Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MIL Stock | 17.42 0.09 0.51% |
Bank Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Bank Millennium's share price is at 56. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bank Millennium, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bank Millennium hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bank Millennium SA from the perspective of Bank Millennium response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank Millennium SA on the next trading day is expected to be 17.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.92. Bank Millennium after-hype prediction price | PLN 17.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Bank |
Bank Millennium Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bank using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bank Millennium Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank Millennium SA on the next trading day is expected to be 17.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Millennium's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bank Millennium Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bank Millennium | Bank Millennium Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Bank Millennium Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bank Millennium's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Millennium's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.48 and 19.36, respectively. We have considered Bank Millennium's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Millennium stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Millennium stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8171 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.022 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2282 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0137 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.92 |
Predictive Modules for Bank Millennium
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Millennium SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bank Millennium's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bank Millennium After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bank Millennium at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bank Millennium or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bank Millennium, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bank Millennium Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bank Millennium's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bank Millennium's historical news coverage. Bank Millennium's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.48 and 19.36, respectively. We have considered Bank Millennium's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bank Millennium is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bank Millennium SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bank Millennium Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bank Millennium is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bank Millennium backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bank Millennium, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.42 | 17.42 | 0.00 |
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Bank Millennium Hype Timeline
Bank Millennium SA is now traded for 17.42on Warsaw Stock Exchange of Poland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bank is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bank Millennium is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.42. About 50.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.15. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Bank Millennium SA recorded a loss per share of 0.94. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of May 2014. The firm had 970:853 split on the 15th of January 2010. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank Millennium to cross-verify your projections.Bank Millennium Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bank Millennium's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bank Millennium's future price movements. Getting to know how Bank Millennium's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bank Millennium may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ECC | ECC Games SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.26 | (5.00) | 23.70 | |
| DAT | Datawalk SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.81 | 0.20 | 8.72 | (4.13) | 22.87 | |
| GIF | Gaming Factory SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 3.13 | (4.72) | 9.95 | |
| CFG | Creativeforge Games SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.36 | (0.01) | 5.26 | (6.63) | 22.45 | |
| K2P | Kool2play SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.55 | (6.98) | 26.36 | |
| FHB | FoodHub Spolka Akcyjna | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.46 | (2.79) | 11.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bank Millennium
For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Millennium's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Millennium's price trends.Bank Millennium Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Millennium stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Millennium could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Millennium by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bank Millennium Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Millennium stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Millennium shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Millennium stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Millennium SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 26557.73 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.13) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 56.64 |
Bank Millennium Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bank Millennium's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Millennium's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bank Millennium
The number of cover stories for Bank Millennium depends on current market conditions and Bank Millennium's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bank Millennium is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bank Millennium's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Bank Millennium Short Properties
Bank Millennium's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bank Millennium's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bank Millennium SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bank Millennium's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bank Millennium's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.2 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Additional Tools for Bank Stock Analysis
When running Bank Millennium's price analysis, check to measure Bank Millennium's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank Millennium is operating at the current time. Most of Bank Millennium's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank Millennium's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank Millennium's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank Millennium to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.