Melco Resorts Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MLCO Stock | USD 6.06 0.01 0.17% |
Melco Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the value of RSI of Melco Resorts' share price is approaching 32. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Melco Resorts, making its price go up or down. Momentum 32
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Melco Resorts hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Melco Resorts Entertainment from the perspective of Melco Resorts response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Melco Resorts Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 6.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.91. Melco Resorts after-hype prediction price | USD 6.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Melco Resorts to cross-verify your projections. Melco Resorts Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Melco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Melco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Melco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Melco Resorts Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Melco Resorts Entertainment on the next trading day is expected to be 6.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Melco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Melco Resorts' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Melco Resorts Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Melco Resorts | Melco Resorts Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Melco Resorts Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Melco Resorts' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Melco Resorts' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.66 and 8.46, respectively. We have considered Melco Resorts' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Melco Resorts stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Melco Resorts stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3655 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0517 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.168 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.91 |
Predictive Modules for Melco Resorts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Melco Resorts Entert. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Melco Resorts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Melco Resorts After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Melco Resorts at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Melco Resorts or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Melco Resorts, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Melco Resorts Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Melco Resorts' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Melco Resorts' historical news coverage. Melco Resorts' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.66 and 8.46, respectively. We have considered Melco Resorts' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Melco Resorts is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Melco Resorts Entert is based on 3 months time horizon.
Melco Resorts Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Melco Resorts is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Melco Resorts backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Melco Resorts, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 2.40 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.06 | 6.06 | 0.00 |
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Melco Resorts Hype Timeline
Melco Resorts Entert is now traded for 6.06. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.22. Melco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.49%. %. The volatility of related hype on Melco Resorts is about 523.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.84. About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.1. Melco Resorts Entert last dividend was issued on the 28th of February 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Melco Resorts to cross-verify your projections.Melco Resorts Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Melco Resorts' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Melco Resorts' future price movements. Getting to know how Melco Resorts' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Melco Resorts may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| THRM | Gentherm | 0.26 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.44 | (3.10) | 17.86 | |
| ACEL | Accel Entertainment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.22 | 0.11 | 2.73 | (1.95) | 7.30 | |
| GIII | G III Apparel Group | (0.80) | 10 per month | 1.68 | 0.02 | 3.85 | (2.62) | 9.35 | |
| CRI | Carters | 0.12 | 12 per month | 2.42 | 0.08 | 5.04 | (5.25) | 14.38 | |
| LEG | Leggett Platt Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.27 | 0.15 | 3.84 | (2.86) | 19.69 | |
| BH | Biglari Holdings | (3.83) | 5 per month | 4.10 | 0.03 | 5.21 | (4.09) | 21.12 | |
| WGO | Winnebago Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.91 | 0.13 | 5.26 | (3.04) | 12.38 | |
| LUCK | Lucky Strike Entertainment | 0.12 | 14 per month | 2.74 | (0.01) | 3.31 | (3.70) | 13.70 | |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino Resort | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | (0.01) | 1.48 | (1.30) | 4.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Melco Resorts
For every potential investor in Melco, whether a beginner or expert, Melco Resorts' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Melco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Melco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Melco Resorts' price trends.Melco Resorts Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Melco Resorts stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Melco Resorts could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Melco Resorts by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Melco Resorts Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Melco Resorts stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Melco Resorts shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Melco Resorts stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Melco Resorts Entertainment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Melco Resorts Risk Indicators
The analysis of Melco Resorts' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Melco Resorts' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting melco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Variance | 5.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Melco Resorts
The number of cover stories for Melco Resorts depends on current market conditions and Melco Resorts' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Melco Resorts is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Melco Resorts' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Melco Resorts Short Properties
Melco Resorts' future price predictability will typically decrease when Melco Resorts' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Melco Resorts Entertainment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Melco Resorts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Melco Resorts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 144.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Melco Resorts to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Melco diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Melco Resorts. Expected growth trajectory for Melco significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Melco Resorts data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Melco Resorts Entert requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Melco's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Melco Resorts' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Melco Resorts' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Melco Resorts' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Melco Resorts represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Melco Resorts' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.