FirstCaution Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MLFIR Stock | EUR 27.00 0.00 0.00% |
FirstCaution Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although FirstCaution's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of FirstCaution's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of FirstCaution fundamentals over time.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of FirstCaution's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using FirstCaution hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FirstCaution SA from the perspective of FirstCaution response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of FirstCaution SA on the next trading day is expected to be 27.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.27. FirstCaution after-hype prediction price | EUR 30.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
FirstCaution |
FirstCaution Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine FirstCaution price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FirstCaution using various technical indicators. When you analyze FirstCaution charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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FirstCaution Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of FirstCaution SA on the next trading day is expected to be 27.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.31, mean absolute percentage error of 12.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FirstCaution Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FirstCaution's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
FirstCaution Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FirstCaution | FirstCaution Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
FirstCaution Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting FirstCaution's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FirstCaution's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.43 and 33.57, respectively. We have considered FirstCaution's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FirstCaution stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FirstCaution stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9863 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4986 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.3097 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0338 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 77.275 |
Predictive Modules for FirstCaution
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FirstCaution SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FirstCaution After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of FirstCaution at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FirstCaution or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FirstCaution, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
FirstCaution Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting FirstCaution's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FirstCaution's historical news coverage. FirstCaution's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.88 and 37.02, respectively. We have considered FirstCaution's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
FirstCaution is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FirstCaution SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
FirstCaution Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FirstCaution is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FirstCaution backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FirstCaution, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.63 | 6.57 | 3.45 | 0.21 | 1 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
27.00 | 30.45 | 12.78 |
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FirstCaution Hype Timeline
FirstCaution SA is now traded for 27.00on Euronext Paris of France. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.45, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.21. FirstCaution is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 30.45 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 120.11%. The price gain on the next news is forecasted to be 12.78%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.63%. The volatility of related hype on FirstCaution is about 1938.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.21. Debt can assist FirstCaution until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, FirstCaution's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like FirstCaution SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for FirstCaution to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about FirstCaution's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of FirstCaution to cross-verify your projections.FirstCaution Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to FirstCaution's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FirstCaution's future price movements. Getting to know how FirstCaution's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FirstCaution may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CMO | Caisse Rgionale de | 2.02 | 2 per month | 2.50 | 0.01 | 4.67 | (4.06) | 15.29 | |
| CRAV | Caisse rgionale de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.07 | (0) | 3.95 | (2.76) | 12.43 | |
| CAT31 | Ca Toulouse 31 | 1.68 | 1 per month | 2.07 | (0.02) | 3.95 | (3.44) | 11.07 | |
| CRLA | Caisse Regionale de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.70 | (3.76) | 9.62 | |
| BSD | Bourse Direct SA | 0.43 | 3 per month | 0.68 | 0.17 | 2.09 | (1.67) | 10.75 | |
| CCN | Caisse Regionale de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.74 | 0.05 | 4.32 | (3.85) | 15.30 | |
| ALMEX | Airtime Partecipazioni SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.48 | (15.09) | 45.68 | |
| ALBON | Compagnie Lebon SA | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.96 | 0.02 | 1.81 | (1.96) | 4.99 | |
| CRSU | Caisse Regionale De | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.73 | (3.12) | 11.04 | |
| CIV | Caisse Regionale de | (0.74) | 1 per month | 1.65 | 0.03 | 2.96 | (3.32) | 8.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for FirstCaution
For every potential investor in FirstCaution, whether a beginner or expert, FirstCaution's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FirstCaution Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FirstCaution. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FirstCaution's price trends.FirstCaution Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FirstCaution stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FirstCaution could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FirstCaution by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FirstCaution Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how FirstCaution stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading FirstCaution shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying FirstCaution stock market strength indicators, traders can identify FirstCaution SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
FirstCaution Risk Indicators
The analysis of FirstCaution's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FirstCaution's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting firstcaution stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.32 | |||
| Variance | 39.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FirstCaution
The number of cover stories for FirstCaution depends on current market conditions and FirstCaution's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FirstCaution is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FirstCaution's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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FirstCaution Short Properties
FirstCaution's future price predictability will typically decrease when FirstCaution's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FirstCaution SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FirstCaution's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FirstCaution's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.0059 | |
| Shares Float | 133.4 K |
Additional Tools for FirstCaution Stock Analysis
When running FirstCaution's price analysis, check to measure FirstCaution's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FirstCaution is operating at the current time. Most of FirstCaution's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FirstCaution's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FirstCaution's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FirstCaution to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.