Mach Natural Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MNR Stock | USD 16.57 0.02 0.12% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mach Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 16.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.46. Mach Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Mach Natural's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Mach Natural's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Mach Natural fundamentals over time.
Mach |
Mach Natural Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mach Natural Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 16.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mach Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mach Natural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mach Natural Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mach Natural | Mach Natural Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mach Natural Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mach Natural's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mach Natural's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.78 and 18.42, respectively. We have considered Mach Natural's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mach Natural stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mach Natural stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0407 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2244 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.4645 |
Predictive Modules for Mach Natural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mach Natural Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Mach Natural
For every potential investor in Mach, whether a beginner or expert, Mach Natural's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mach Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mach. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mach Natural's price trends.Mach Natural Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mach Natural stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mach Natural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mach Natural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mach Natural Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mach Natural's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mach Natural's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Mach Natural Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mach Natural stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mach Natural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mach Natural stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mach Natural Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mach Natural Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mach Natural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mach Natural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mach stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Variance | 3.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Mach Natural
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Mach Natural position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Mach Natural will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Mach Stock
Moving against Mach Stock
| 0.54 | CNX | CNX Resources Corp Fiscal Year End 23rd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | EXE | Expand Energy Symbol Change | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | LB | LandBridge Company Downward Rally | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | EQT | EQT Corporation | PairCorr |
| 0.39 | EPM | Evolution Petroleum | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Mach Natural could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Mach Natural when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Mach Natural - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Mach Natural Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Mach Natural is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Mach Natural moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Mach Natural Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Mach Natural can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Mach Stock Analysis
When running Mach Natural's price analysis, check to measure Mach Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mach Natural is operating at the current time. Most of Mach Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mach Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mach Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mach Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.