Mobilicom Limited Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MOBBW Stock | USD 3.75 0.25 6.25% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mobilicom Limited Warrants on the next trading day is expected to be 3.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.19. Mobilicom Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Mobilicom Limited's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
Using Mobilicom Limited hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mobilicom Limited Warrants from the perspective of Mobilicom Limited response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mobilicom Limited Warrants on the next trading day is expected to be 3.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.19. Mobilicom Limited after-hype prediction price | USD 3.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Mobilicom Limited Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mobilicom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mobilicom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mobilicom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mobilicom Limited Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mobilicom Limited Warrants on the next trading day is expected to be 3.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mobilicom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mobilicom Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mobilicom Limited Stock Forecast Pattern
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Mobilicom Limited Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mobilicom Limited's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mobilicom Limited's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 20.11, respectively. We have considered Mobilicom Limited's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mobilicom Limited stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mobilicom Limited stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0698 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0088 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2817 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1006 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.1856 |
Predictive Modules for Mobilicom Limited
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mobilicom Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mobilicom Limited After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mobilicom Limited at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mobilicom Limited or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mobilicom Limited, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mobilicom Limited Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mobilicom Limited's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mobilicom Limited's historical news coverage. Mobilicom Limited's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 20.08, respectively. We have considered Mobilicom Limited's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mobilicom Limited is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mobilicom Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mobilicom Limited Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mobilicom Limited is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mobilicom Limited backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mobilicom Limited, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.34 | 16.33 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 |
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Mobilicom Limited Hype Timeline
Mobilicom Limited is now traded for 3.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Mobilicom is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mobilicom Limited is about 29690.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.68. The book value of the company was now reported as 0.63. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mobilicom Limited to cross-verify your projections.Mobilicom Limited Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mobilicom Limited's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mobilicom Limited's future price movements. Getting to know how Mobilicom Limited's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mobilicom Limited may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| STEC | Santech Holdings Limited | 0.01 | 8 per month | 5.46 | 0.05 | 14.44 | (9.37) | 48.33 | |
| DTSS | Datasea | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 14.63 | (12.60) | 31.30 | |
| AMST | Amesite Operating Co | (0.22) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.82 | (8.49) | 30.71 | |
| ELSE | Electro Sensors | (0.14) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.47 | (3.08) | 9.10 | |
| SMSI | Smith Micro Software | 0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.56 | (6.35) | 19.70 | |
| SONM | Sonim Technologies | 0.08 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 14.55 | (13.45) | 35.76 | |
| GLE | Global Engine Group | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 11.63 | (10.20) | 53.24 | |
| TGHL | The GrowHub Limited | (0.03) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 10.53 | (9.09) | 28.46 | |
| BLIN | Bridgeline Digital | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 6.10 | (7.78) | 22.82 | |
| SYNX | Silynxcom | (0.16) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 14.44 | (12.12) | 34.56 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mobilicom Limited
For every potential investor in Mobilicom, whether a beginner or expert, Mobilicom Limited's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mobilicom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mobilicom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mobilicom Limited's price trends.Mobilicom Limited Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mobilicom Limited stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mobilicom Limited could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mobilicom Limited by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mobilicom Limited Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mobilicom Limited stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mobilicom Limited shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mobilicom Limited stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mobilicom Limited Warrants entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mobilicom Limited Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mobilicom Limited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mobilicom Limited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mobilicom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 11.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 11.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 15.93 | |||
| Variance | 253.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 143.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 127.92 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (13.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mobilicom Limited
The number of cover stories for Mobilicom Limited depends on current market conditions and Mobilicom Limited's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mobilicom Limited is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mobilicom Limited's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mobilicom Limited Short Properties
Mobilicom Limited's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mobilicom Limited's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mobilicom Limited Warrants often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mobilicom Limited's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mobilicom Limited's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.6 M |
Additional Tools for Mobilicom Stock Analysis
When running Mobilicom Limited's price analysis, check to measure Mobilicom Limited's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mobilicom Limited is operating at the current time. Most of Mobilicom Limited's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mobilicom Limited's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mobilicom Limited's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mobilicom Limited to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.