Mobilicom Limited Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MOBBW Stock  USD 3.75  0.25  6.25%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mobilicom Limited Warrants on the next trading day is expected to be 3.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.19. Mobilicom Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Mobilicom Limited's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Mobilicom Limited's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Mobilicom Limited and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Mobilicom Limited's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mobilicom Limited Warrants, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Mobilicom Limited's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.20)
Using Mobilicom Limited hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mobilicom Limited Warrants from the perspective of Mobilicom Limited response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mobilicom Limited Warrants on the next trading day is expected to be 3.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.19.

Mobilicom Limited after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 3.75  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mobilicom Limited to cross-verify your projections.

Mobilicom Limited Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mobilicom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mobilicom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mobilicom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Mobilicom Limited simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Mobilicom Limited Warrants are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Mobilicom Limited prices get older.

Mobilicom Limited Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mobilicom Limited Warrants on the next trading day is expected to be 3.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.19.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mobilicom Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mobilicom Limited's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mobilicom Limited Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mobilicom LimitedMobilicom Limited Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Mobilicom Limited Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mobilicom Limited's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mobilicom Limited's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 20.11, respectively. We have considered Mobilicom Limited's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.75
3.78
Expected Value
20.11
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mobilicom Limited stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mobilicom Limited stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0698
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0088
MADMean absolute deviation0.2817
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1006
SAESum of the absolute errors17.1856
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Mobilicom Limited Warrants forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Mobilicom Limited observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Mobilicom Limited

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mobilicom Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.193.7520.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.142.7619.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mobilicom Limited. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mobilicom Limited's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mobilicom Limited's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mobilicom Limited.

Mobilicom Limited After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Mobilicom Limited at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mobilicom Limited or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mobilicom Limited, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Mobilicom Limited Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Mobilicom Limited's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mobilicom Limited's historical news coverage. Mobilicom Limited's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 20.08, respectively. We have considered Mobilicom Limited's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.75
3.75
After-hype Price
20.08
Upside
Mobilicom Limited is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mobilicom Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.

Mobilicom Limited Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mobilicom Limited is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mobilicom Limited backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mobilicom Limited, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.34 
16.33
  0.27 
  0.07 
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.75
3.75
0.00 
8,165  
Notes

Mobilicom Limited Hype Timeline

Mobilicom Limited is now traded for 3.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Mobilicom is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mobilicom Limited is about 29690.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.68. The book value of the company was now reported as 0.63. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mobilicom Limited to cross-verify your projections.

Mobilicom Limited Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Mobilicom Limited's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mobilicom Limited's future price movements. Getting to know how Mobilicom Limited's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mobilicom Limited may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
STECSantech Holdings Limited 0.01 8 per month 5.46  0.05  14.44 (9.37) 48.33 
DTSSDatasea(0.08)9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 14.63 (12.60) 31.30 
AMSTAmesite Operating Co(0.22)5 per month 0.00 (0.16) 5.82 (8.49) 30.71 
ELSEElectro Sensors(0.14)3 per month 0.00 (0.09) 2.47 (3.08) 9.10 
SMSISmith Micro Software 0.01 9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 5.56 (6.35) 19.70 
SONMSonim Technologies 0.08 1 per month 0.00 (0.14) 14.55 (13.45) 35.76 
GLEGlobal Engine Group(0.01)4 per month 0.00 (0.08) 11.63 (10.20) 53.24 
TGHLThe GrowHub Limited(0.03)2 per month 0.00 (0.13) 10.53 (9.09) 28.46 
BLINBridgeline Digital(0.01)10 per month 0.00 (0.16) 6.10 (7.78) 22.82 
SYNXSilynxcom(0.16)9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 14.44 (12.12) 34.56 

Other Forecasting Options for Mobilicom Limited

For every potential investor in Mobilicom, whether a beginner or expert, Mobilicom Limited's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mobilicom Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mobilicom. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mobilicom Limited's price trends.

Mobilicom Limited Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mobilicom Limited stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mobilicom Limited could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mobilicom Limited by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mobilicom Limited Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mobilicom Limited stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mobilicom Limited shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mobilicom Limited stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mobilicom Limited Warrants entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mobilicom Limited Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mobilicom Limited's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mobilicom Limited's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mobilicom stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mobilicom Limited

The number of cover stories for Mobilicom Limited depends on current market conditions and Mobilicom Limited's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mobilicom Limited is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mobilicom Limited's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Mobilicom Limited Short Properties

Mobilicom Limited's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mobilicom Limited's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mobilicom Limited Warrants often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mobilicom Limited's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mobilicom Limited's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.7 B
Cash And Short Term Investments8.6 M

Additional Tools for Mobilicom Stock Analysis

When running Mobilicom Limited's price analysis, check to measure Mobilicom Limited's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mobilicom Limited is operating at the current time. Most of Mobilicom Limited's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mobilicom Limited's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mobilicom Limited's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mobilicom Limited to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.