ModivCare Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| MODV Stock | USD 4.32 0.08 1.89% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of ModivCare on the next trading day is expected to be 4.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.48. ModivCare Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
ModivCare |
Open Interest Against 2025-03-21 ModivCare Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ModivCare's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ModivCare's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ModivCare stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ModivCare's open interest, investors have to compare it to ModivCare's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ModivCare is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ModivCare. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ModivCare 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of ModivCare on the next trading day is expected to be 4.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.01, mean absolute percentage error of 2.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ModivCare Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ModivCare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ModivCare Stock Forecast Pattern
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ModivCare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ModivCare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ModivCare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 13.81, respectively. We have considered ModivCare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ModivCare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ModivCare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4943 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.5278 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0083 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1127 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.48 |
Predictive Modules for ModivCare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ModivCare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ModivCare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for ModivCare
For every potential investor in ModivCare, whether a beginner or expert, ModivCare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ModivCare Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ModivCare. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ModivCare's price trends.ModivCare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ModivCare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ModivCare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ModivCare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ModivCare Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ModivCare's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ModivCare's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ModivCare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ModivCare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ModivCare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ModivCare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ModivCare entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 25362.09 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2667 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.29 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.08 |
ModivCare Risk Indicators
The analysis of ModivCare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ModivCare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting modivcare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.11 | |||
| Variance | 82.91 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for ModivCare Stock Analysis
When running ModivCare's price analysis, check to measure ModivCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ModivCare is operating at the current time. Most of ModivCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ModivCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ModivCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ModivCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.