Mogo Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

Mogo Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mogo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mogo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mogo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Mogo is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mogo Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Mogo Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mogo Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 1.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.88.

Mogo Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mogo

Mogo Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mogo stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mogo stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Mogo Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Mogo. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Mogo

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mogo Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 0.05 0.99 4.33 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 0.05 0.99 4.33 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 0.98 1.12 1.26 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mogo. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mogo's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mogo's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mogo Inc.

Mogo After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Mogo Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Mogo Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Mogo Hype Timeline

Mogo Inc is now traded for 1.04. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Mogo is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.99. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -4.81%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.9%. The volatility of related hype on Mogo is about 3976.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.12. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.45. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mogo Inc last dividend was issued on the 5th of April 2019. The entity had 1:3 split on the 14th of August 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in census.

Mogo Related Hype Analysis

Mogo Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Mogo Market Strength Events

Mogo Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Mogo

Mogo Short Properties

Other Consideration for investing in Mogo Stock