Molina Healthcare Stock Forward View
| MOH Stock | USD 179.59 5.34 2.89% |
Molina Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Molina Healthcare's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 1st of February 2026, The value of RSI of Molina Healthcare's share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Molina Healthcare, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Molina Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Molina Healthcare from the perspective of Molina Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Molina Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 170.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 183.27. Molina Healthcare after-hype prediction price | USD 179.59 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Molina Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. Molina Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Molina price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Molina using various technical indicators. When you analyze Molina charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Molina Healthcare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Molina Healthcare on the next trading day is expected to be 170.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.00, mean absolute percentage error of 14.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 183.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Molina Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Molina Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Molina Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Molina Healthcare | Molina Healthcare Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Molina Healthcare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Molina Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Molina Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 167.60 and 172.60, respectively. We have considered Molina Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Molina Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Molina Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.8135 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0045 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 183.2745 |
Predictive Modules for Molina Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Molina Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Molina Healthcare After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Molina Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Molina Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Molina Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Molina Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Molina Healthcare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Molina Healthcare's historical news coverage. Molina Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 177.09 and 182.09, respectively. We have considered Molina Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Molina Healthcare is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Molina Healthcare is based on 3 months time horizon.
Molina Healthcare Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Molina Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Molina Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Molina Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 2.50 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 21 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 21 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
179.59 | 179.59 | 0.00 |
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Molina Healthcare Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February Molina Healthcare is traded for 179.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Molina is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Molina Healthcare is about 724.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 179.47. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Molina Healthcare was now reported as 82.18. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.87. Molina Healthcare recorded earning per share (EPS) of 15.77. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 3:2 split on the 23rd of May 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 21 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Molina Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.Molina Healthcare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Molina Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Molina Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how Molina Healthcare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Molina Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DVA | DaVita HealthCare Partners | (5.53) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.96 | (3.23) | 9.36 | |
| HSIC | Henry Schein | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.11 | 2.43 | (2.33) | 13.60 | |
| GMED | Globus Medical | (0.58) | 11 per month | 0.86 | 0.13 | 3.67 | (2.31) | 38.89 | |
| HQY | HealthEquity | (5.53) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.57 | (3.01) | 16.72 | |
| GRFS | Grifols SA ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.17 | (3.19) | 7.88 | |
| BIO | Bio Rad Laboratories | 4.41 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.31 | (2.90) | 8.43 | |
| HALO | Halozyme Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.73 | 0.05 | 3.44 | (2.83) | 9.83 | |
| ATR | AptarGroup | 0.71 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 1.73 | (2.49) | 6.75 | |
| MASI | Masimo | 2.70 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.06 | (2.71) | 10.00 | |
| AVTR | Avantor | 0.37 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.75 | (4.39) | 23.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Molina Healthcare
For every potential investor in Molina, whether a beginner or expert, Molina Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Molina Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Molina. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Molina Healthcare's price trends.Molina Healthcare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Molina Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Molina Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Molina Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Molina Healthcare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Molina Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Molina Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Molina Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Molina Healthcare entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0485 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.59) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 181.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 180.79 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 9.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (4.47) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (5.34) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.59 |
Molina Healthcare Risk Indicators
The analysis of Molina Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Molina Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting molina stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Variance | 6.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Molina Healthcare
The number of cover stories for Molina Healthcare depends on current market conditions and Molina Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Molina Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Molina Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Molina Healthcare Short Properties
Molina Healthcare's future price predictability will typically decrease when Molina Healthcare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Molina Healthcare often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Molina Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Molina Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Molina Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Molina Stock please use our How to Invest in Molina Healthcare guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is there potential for Stock market expansion? Will Molina introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Molina Healthcare. Expected growth trajectory for Molina significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Molina Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Investors evaluate Molina Healthcare using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Molina Healthcare's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Molina Healthcare's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Molina Healthcare's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Molina Healthcare represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Molina Healthcare's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.