Monroe Capital Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average

MRCC Stock  USD 6.42  0.03  0.47%   
Monroe Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Monroe Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Monroe Capital Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Monroe Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the value of rsi of Monroe Capital's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 46

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Monroe Capital's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Monroe Capital Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Monroe Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Monroe Capital Corp from the perspective of Monroe Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Monroe Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.11.

Monroe Capital after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 6.42  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Monroe Capital to cross-verify your projections.

Monroe Capital Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Monroe price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Monroe using various technical indicators. When you analyze Monroe charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for Monroe Capital is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Monroe Capital Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Monroe Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Monroe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Monroe Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Monroe Capital Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Monroe Capital  Monroe Capital Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Monroe Capital Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Monroe Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Monroe Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.68 and 8.15, respectively. We have considered Monroe Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.42
6.42
Expected Value
8.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Monroe Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Monroe Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.3621
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0084
MADMean absolute deviation0.1036
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0165
SAESum of the absolute errors6.115
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Monroe Capital Corp price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Monroe Capital. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Monroe Capital

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Monroe Capital Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Monroe Capital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.686.428.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.616.358.09
Details

Monroe Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Monroe Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Monroe Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Monroe Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Monroe Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Monroe Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Monroe Capital's historical news coverage. Monroe Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.68 and 8.16, respectively. We have considered Monroe Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.42
6.42
After-hype Price
8.16
Upside
Monroe Capital is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Monroe Capital Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Monroe Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Monroe Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Monroe Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Monroe Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
1.74
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.42
6.42
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Monroe Capital Hype Timeline

Monroe Capital Corp is now traded for 6.42. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Monroe is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Monroe Capital is about 21750.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.42. About 22.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.8. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Monroe Capital Corp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.05. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.19. The firm last dividend was issued on the 23rd of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Monroe Capital to cross-verify your projections.

Monroe Capital Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Monroe Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Monroe Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Monroe Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Monroe Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
WHFWhiteHorse Finance(0.05)8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.90 (2.46) 7.86 
BANXArrowmark Financial Corp(0.20)12 per month 1.12  0.04  1.49 (1.37) 8.19 
OXSQOxford Square Capital(0.02)6 per month 1.42  0.02  3.78 (2.22) 8.47 
NOAHNoah Holdings 0.02 9 per month 1.34 (0) 3.32 (2.20) 8.29 
BCICBCP Investment Corp(0.07)7 per month 1.63  0.04  1.99 (2.45) 8.92 
FLDFold Holdings Class 0.13 7 per month 0.00 (0.20) 5.75 (9.56) 19.28 
STEXStreamex Corp 0.09 10 per month 0.00 (0.08) 10.99 (8.94) 25.10 
OCCIOFS Credit 0.09 5 per month 2.20  0.01  2.81 (3.32) 10.77 
INVInnventure(0.07)10 per month 7.24  0.06  17.85 (12.34) 43.34 
EMISEmisphere Technologies 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 

Other Forecasting Options for Monroe Capital

For every potential investor in Monroe, whether a beginner or expert, Monroe Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Monroe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Monroe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Monroe Capital's price trends.

Monroe Capital Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Monroe Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Monroe Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Monroe Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Monroe Capital Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Monroe Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Monroe Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Monroe Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Monroe Capital Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Monroe Capital Risk Indicators

The analysis of Monroe Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Monroe Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting monroe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Monroe Capital

The number of cover stories for Monroe Capital depends on current market conditions and Monroe Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Monroe Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Monroe Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Monroe Capital Short Properties

Monroe Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Monroe Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Monroe Capital Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Monroe Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Monroe Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding21.7 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsM
When determining whether Monroe Capital Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Monroe Capital's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Monroe Capital Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Monroe Capital Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Monroe Capital to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Will Stock sector continue expanding? Could Monroe diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Monroe Capital. Expected growth trajectory for Monroe significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Monroe Capital data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Understanding Monroe Capital Corp requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Monroe's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Monroe Capital's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Monroe Capital's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Monroe Capital's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Monroe Capital represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Monroe Capital's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.