Merus BV Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MRUS Stock  USD 90.00  6.86  7.08%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merus BV on the next trading day is expected to be 90.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.73. Merus Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Merus BV's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Merus BV's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Merus BV and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Merus BV's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Merus BV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Merus BV's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(1.21)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(5.78)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(5.14)
Wall Street Target Price
97
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(1.36)
Using Merus BV hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Merus BV from the perspective of Merus BV response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Merus BV using Merus BV's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Merus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Merus BV's stock price.

Merus BV Short Interest

An investor who is long Merus BV may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Merus BV and may potentially protect profits, hedge Merus BV with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
69.3443
Short Percent
0.0108
Short Ratio
0.59
Shares Short Prior Month
1.6 M
50 Day MA
95.4148

Merus BV Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Merus BV's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Merus. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Merus can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Merus BV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Merus BV's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Merus BV.

Merus BV Implied Volatility

    
  0.74  
Merus BV's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Merus BV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Merus BV's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Merus BV stock will not fluctuate a lot when Merus BV's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merus BV on the next trading day is expected to be 90.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.73.

Merus BV after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 89.99  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in private.
Payables Turnover is likely to gain to 8.97 in 2026, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 1.18 in 2026. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 77.5 M in 2026, despite the fact that Net Loss is likely to grow to (112.2 M).

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Merus Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Merus BV's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Merus BV's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Merus BV stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Merus BV's open interest, investors have to compare it to Merus BV's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Merus BV is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Merus. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Merus BV Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Merus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Merus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Merus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Merus BV's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2013-12-31
Previous Quarter
442.8 M
Current Value
313.8 M
Quarterly Volatility
123.2 M
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Merus BV is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Merus BV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Merus BV Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merus BV on the next trading day is expected to be 90.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merus Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merus BV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Merus BV Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Merus BVMerus BV Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merus BV stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merus BV stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5625
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5202
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0055
SAESum of the absolute errors31.7331
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Merus BV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Merus BV. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Merus BV

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merus BV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merus BV's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
89.0189.9990.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
87.4388.4199.00
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
88.2797.00107.67
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.6-1.32-1.1
Details

Merus BV Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merus BV stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merus BV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merus BV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merus BV Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merus BV stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merus BV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merus BV stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merus BV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Merus BV Risk Indicators

The analysis of Merus BV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merus BV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merus stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for Merus Stock Analysis

When running Merus BV's price analysis, check to measure Merus BV's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merus BV is operating at the current time. Most of Merus BV's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merus BV's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merus BV's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merus BV to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.