MSA Safety Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MSA Stock | USD 196.31 1.51 0.78% |
MSA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MSA Safety stock prices and determine the direction of MSA Safety's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of MSA Safety's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of MSA Safety's share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling MSA, making its price go up or down. Momentum 75
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MSA Safety hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MSA Safety from the perspective of MSA Safety response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MSA Safety on the next trading day is expected to be 196.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.64. MSA Safety after-hype prediction price | USD 195.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MSA Safety to cross-verify your projections. MSA Safety Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MSA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MSA using various technical indicators. When you analyze MSA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MSA Safety Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MSA Safety on the next trading day is expected to be 196.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.88, mean absolute percentage error of 5.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 112.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MSA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MSA Safety's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MSA Safety Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MSA Safety | MSA Safety Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
MSA Safety Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MSA Safety's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MSA Safety's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 194.97 and 197.65, respectively. We have considered MSA Safety's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MSA Safety stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MSA Safety stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.0272 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.595 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8773 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 112.64 |
Predictive Modules for MSA Safety
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MSA Safety. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MSA Safety's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MSA Safety After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MSA Safety at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MSA Safety or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MSA Safety, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MSA Safety Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MSA Safety's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MSA Safety's historical news coverage. MSA Safety's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 193.99 and 196.69, respectively. We have considered MSA Safety's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MSA Safety is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MSA Safety is based on 3 months time horizon.
MSA Safety Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MSA Safety is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MSA Safety backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MSA Safety, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
196.31 | 195.34 | 0.28 |
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MSA Safety Hype Timeline
On the 24th of February MSA Safety is traded for 196.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. MSA is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 195.34 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.28%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on MSA Safety is about 2392.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 196.29. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.87 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 278.92 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 871.11 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MSA Safety to cross-verify your projections.MSA Safety Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MSA Safety's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MSA Safety's future price movements. Getting to know how MSA Safety's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MSA Safety may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| REZI | Resideo Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.13 | 0.02 | 3.33 | (4.14) | 11.85 | |
| ADT | ADT Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.64 | (2.31) | 7.79 | |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations | 0.80 | 7 per month | 3.24 | 0.07 | 5.90 | (2.65) | 25.45 | |
| MIDD | Middleby Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.22 | 3.65 | (2.03) | 12.68 | |
| FCN | FTI Consulting | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.48 | (2.99) | 14.70 | |
| GATX | GATX Corporation | (1.36) | 14 per month | 0.45 | 0.21 | 2.06 | (1.27) | 6.28 | |
| KEX | Kirby | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.25 | 0.09 | 2.92 | (1.89) | 9.34 | |
| BCO | Brinks Company | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.98 | 0.10 | 2.91 | (2.28) | 7.05 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.26 | 0.38 | 3.68 | (1.41) | 6.92 | |
| GTES | Gates Industrial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.36 | 0.14 | 3.74 | (1.96) | 10.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for MSA Safety
For every potential investor in MSA, whether a beginner or expert, MSA Safety's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MSA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MSA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MSA Safety's price trends.MSA Safety Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MSA Safety stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MSA Safety could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MSA Safety by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MSA Safety Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MSA Safety stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MSA Safety shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MSA Safety stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MSA Safety entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2359.61 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4081 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 197.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 197.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.53) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.51 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 75.51 |
MSA Safety Risk Indicators
The analysis of MSA Safety's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MSA Safety's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting msa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7005 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4907 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MSA Safety
The number of cover stories for MSA Safety depends on current market conditions and MSA Safety's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MSA Safety is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MSA Safety's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MSA Safety Short Properties
MSA Safety's future price predictability will typically decrease when MSA Safety's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MSA Safety often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MSA Safety's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MSA Safety's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 165.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MSA Safety to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade MSA Stock refer to our How to Trade MSA Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.
Is Commercial Services & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MSA Safety. Expected growth trajectory for MSA significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive MSA Safety assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate MSA Safety using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating MSA Safety's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause MSA Safety's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that MSA Safety's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether MSA Safety represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, MSA Safety's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.