MSCI Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| MSCI Stock | USD 589.76 1.49 0.25% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MSCI Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 598.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 468.53. MSCI Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MSCI's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the rsi of MSCI's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using MSCI hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MSCI Inc from the perspective of MSCI response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MSCI Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 598.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 468.53. MSCI after-hype prediction price | USD 590.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MSCI to cross-verify your projections. MSCI Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MSCI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MSCI using various technical indicators. When you analyze MSCI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MSCI Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MSCI Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 598.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.68, mean absolute percentage error of 91.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 468.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MSCI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MSCI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MSCI Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MSCI | MSCI Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MSCI Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MSCI's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MSCI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 597.33 and 600.62, respectively. We have considered MSCI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MSCI stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MSCI stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.6229 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.6809 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 468.5343 |
Predictive Modules for MSCI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MSCI Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MSCI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MSCI After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MSCI at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MSCI or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MSCI, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MSCI Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MSCI's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MSCI's historical news coverage. MSCI's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 588.36 and 591.66, respectively. We have considered MSCI's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MSCI is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MSCI Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
MSCI Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MSCI is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MSCI backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MSCI, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.65 | 0.25 | 0.08 | 17 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 17 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
589.76 | 590.01 | 0.04 |
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MSCI Hype Timeline
MSCI Inc is now traded for 589.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. MSCI is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 590.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 91.67%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on MSCI is about 278.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 589.68. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.86 B. Net Income was 1.11 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.52 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 17 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MSCI to cross-verify your projections.MSCI Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MSCI's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MSCI's future price movements. Getting to know how MSCI's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MSCI may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NDAQ | Nasdaq Inc | (0.46) | 4 per month | 1.08 | 0.08 | 2.10 | (1.59) | 5.81 | |
| AIG | American International Group | 0.48 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.22 | (2.43) | 13.58 | |
| BSBR | Banco Santander Brasil | (0.60) | 9 per month | 1.83 | 0.15 | 3.66 | (2.09) | 10.37 | |
| AMP | Ameriprise Financial | (3.05) | 8 per month | 1.77 | 0.01 | 2.44 | (2.90) | 7.27 | |
| MET | MetLife | (0.60) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.04 | (1.58) | 7.07 | |
| CBOE | Cboe Global Markets | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.90 | 0.15 | 1.84 | (1.57) | 6.20 | |
| ALL | The Allstate | (1.54) | 3 per month | 1.35 | (0.05) | 2.10 | (1.99) | 8.07 | |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase Co | (0.15) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.00 | (3.11) | 7.38 | |
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.53 | (6.77) | 20.12 | |
| RKT | Rocket Companies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.67 | 0.07 | 6.14 | (4.23) | 14.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for MSCI
For every potential investor in MSCI, whether a beginner or expert, MSCI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MSCI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MSCI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MSCI's price trends.MSCI Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MSCI stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MSCI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MSCI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MSCI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MSCI stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MSCI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MSCI stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MSCI Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MSCI Risk Indicators
The analysis of MSCI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MSCI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting msci stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MSCI
The number of cover stories for MSCI depends on current market conditions and MSCI's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MSCI is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MSCI's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MSCI Short Properties
MSCI's future price predictability will typically decrease when MSCI's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MSCI Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MSCI's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MSCI's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 405.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MSCI to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Is Financial Exchanges & Data space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MSCI. If investors know MSCI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MSCI listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of MSCI Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MSCI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MSCI's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MSCI's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MSCI's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MSCI's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MSCI's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MSCI is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MSCI's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.